Latino voters and the political earthquake in New York

Elections that cause seismic shifts in the political landscape are rare. With the shocking victory last week of Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist assemblyman from Queens, New York experienced one such change. Indeed, Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary is best understood as an unexpected political earthquake.

Few expected Mamdani to win. Many wondered if he could form the coalition needed to defeat a powerful figure in traditional politics. Could you expand the electorate? Could it energize younger voters? Could it attract and mobilize low-turnout voters like Asians and Latinos?

Apparently, Mamdani achieved all of the above. And curiously, it seems that he obtained a plurality of the Latino vote.

That in itself is an achievement. Conventional wisdom held that Mamdani could not convince enough Latino voters to turn away from Andrew Cuomo, considering that Latinos have always viewed the former governor favorably.

Despite his many controversies, Latinos remained loyal to a governor who they felt had responded to many of their needs. When Hurricane Maria devastated the island of Puerto Rico, Cuomo took the lead by coordinating flights to deliver goods and emergency assistance. The same happened with their responses to crises in the Dominican Republic and other Latin American countries. Latinos remember these efforts.

So what happened? How and where did Mamdani manage to win over a crucial electoral bloc that Cuomo needed?

I have examined preliminary first-round votes for mayoral candidates within majority-Latino congressional districts. These districts were identified using the L2 voter file, which relies not only on Census data but also numerous other sources to identify ethnic information as accurately as possible.

Using this data, I focused on congressional districts where more than 60 percent of the population is Latino, to avoid the complications of deciphering the Latino vote in more diverse districts. (Until voter records are updated, we won’t have a full picture of the magnitude of this election. So all current analyses, including this one, should be taken with a grain of salt.)

This is what I found:

In Manhattan, Mamdani led Cuomo by just over 2,000 votes. His greatest success was in Washington Heights and Inwood, the 72nd Assembly District. Mamdani lost the majority-Latino precincts on the Lower East Side by 151 votes. He won supermajority Latino districts in El Barrio/East Harlem by 92 votes, and parts of Hamilton Heights, Harlem, and southern Washington Heights by 657 votes. Keep in mind that I am only examining supermajority Latino districts, so these results do not refer to the total vote in those districts.

Notably, most elected officials in those areas did not endorse Mamdani, including Congressman Adriano Espaillat, whose district encompasses all of those neighborhoods. Only State Senator Robert Jackson and Councilwoman Carmen De La Rosa endorsed the presumptive Democratic nominee.
The Bronx tells a different story regarding the Latino vote. Cuomo easily bested Mamdani in most majority-Latino sections of the Bronx, the only majority-Latino borough in the city. In the South Bronx, 51 percent of voters chose Cuomo. In the Kingsbridge, Fordham and Belmont neighborhoods, 51 percent voted for Cuomo and 39 percent for Mamdani.

In the Soundview, Longwood and Hunts Point neighborhoods, 57 percent of the votes went to Cuomo. Mamdani got 31 percent. And we see similar results in Morris Heights, University Heights and Tremont. In the Bronx, Cuomo also received the most endorsements from Latino elected officials (state Sen. Gustavo Rivera bucked the trend and strongly supported Mamdani). This election demonstrates once again that most endorsements are irrelevant and that very few political leaders have the ability to decisively influence an election.

Turning to Brooklyn, I note that Mamdani won these super-majority Latino districts by a total of 1,664 votes over Cuomo. His biggest endorsements were in Sunset Park (51st District), Bushwick and Williamsburg (53rd District). Because of the marked gentrification in those neighborhoods, especially the last two, I was especially careful to identify precincts where more than 60 percent of voters are Latino. In District 54, which covers parts of East New York and Cypress Hills, Mamdani led Cuomo by 21 votes.

The results in Queens within Latino neighborhoods present even more fascinating realities. I looked at precincts with more than 60 percent Latinos in Corona, Elmhurst, East Elmhurst, Ozone Park, and Ridgewood. Mamdani won those precincts by 1,151 votes. Although these numbers may seem similar to those in Manhattan and Brooklyn, they show an interesting dynamic in Latino voting patterns, especially in Queens.

My analysis of the presidential election in Queens showed an increase in support for Donald Trump, although this increase was not as pronounced as some anticipated. Of all the Latino neighborhoods in the city, Queens saw the largest decline in support for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Remembering this recent history makes the current mayoral primary results in these neighborhoods seem erratic. How could Latinos vote for a democratic socialist after having voted for the conservative authoritarianism of Donald Trump?

If these results remind us of anything, it is what has already become almost a cliché: Latinos are not homogeneous. We do not fit into one-size-fits-all formulas. We are very diverse in culture, country of origin, linguistic nuances and political philosophies. This is also reflected at the polls. In fact, we see it in this election: the majority of Latinos in the Bronx voted for Cuomo, while a plurality of Latinos in other districts voted for Mamdani.

Furthermore, Latino support for Mamdani, especially in Queens, should help us understand that the surge in support for Trump in 2024 was not necessarily a sign of an ideological shift to the right. What these results could be telling us is that economic populist messages resonate deeply among Latinos. And that shouldn’t surprise anyone. It certainly came as no surprise to Mamdani. A truly generational political talent, Mamdani has well understood the plight of communities like Latinos, whose daily realities evoke persistent economic anxieties.

It should also come as no surprise that most Latinos do not view free public transportation, free child care, or rent freezes as negative. These are issues that Latinos care deeply about because their very livelihood depends on these essential, everyday issues.

To the Democratic and Republican parties, especially those preparing for re-election next year, I would say: pay attention to Mamdani’s campaign. It seems that many Latinos are already doing it, and without a doubt they will make their voices heard again at the polls.

That is, Valentin

He is a political analyst and commentator for Univision NY. This article was originally published in English on City Limits.