On the banks of the Adriatic Coast and between three interwoven spheres of influence in the Balkan region, lies the Republic of Montenegro, one of the smallest countries in Europe in terms of area and population. It gained independence from Serbia in 2006 and joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2017.
This country, which enjoys an important strategic location in the region, suffers from sharp internal divisions over national identity and religious affiliation, fueled by competition between loyalists to Serbia and elite leaders seeking to establish an independent national identity that would contribute to accelerating accession to the European Union.
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Like other countries located in the Balkan space, Montenegro was affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war, as the intensity of polarizing rhetoric escalated, and the fragility of the state’s political and security structure deepened.
Within this tense context of internal and external factors, the Al Jazeera Center for Studies published a paper on the Republic of Montenegro that helps in dismantling and understanding the dynamics of conflict and balance in the Balkans.
The paper, which was titled “Montenegro is at the epicenter of geopolitical transformations in the Balkans“It was prepared by Karim Al-Majri, a researcher specializing in Balkan and Eastern European affairs, in which he attempted to anticipate the country’s future within a turbulent regional environment and an international horizon characterized by redrawing maps and alliances.
Identity problem
For centuries, the country was an area of contact and conflict between Ottoman and Russian influences, and later between Serbian national aspirations and independent Montenegrin identity.
During the Ottoman era, Montenegro enjoyed a kind of autonomy, and its national leaders fought the culture of Turkification, and maintained a kind of administrative and military independence, which formed the basis of a nationalist discourse whose symbols were inspired by the leaders of the resistance to Ottoman hegemony and the Eastern Islamic identity.
On the other hand, Russian influence remained strongly present in the political and religious fields, especially through the Orthodox Church, which played a pivotal role in shaping Montenegrin national consciousness.
With the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire and the emergence of nationalist movements in the Balkans, Montenegro became involved in the Greater Yugoslavia project, uniting with Serbia and other regions to form the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, in 1918, and then the Socialist Republic of Yugoslavia after World War II.
Following the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Montenegro formed Serbia’s last federal ally, within what was then called the “New Republic of Yugoslavia” and then the “Union of Serbia and Montenegro,” but this union was fragile from its beginning.
With the rise of an independent nationalist movement led by Milo Djukanovic, the political elite in the capital, Podgorica, began to steer the country towards the option of full independence, and this culminated in a referendum in 2006. About 55.5% of the population voted in favor of independence from Serbia.
Faced with this historical legacy, Montenegro today finds itself in a complex situation. It is a young country in terms of independence, but it has a long history of resistance to foreign occupation, and at the same time it is trapped in identity divisions and unresolved political legacies.
Between West and East
In 2006, Montenegro entered a new phase with its independence from Serbia and began to open up to the West, severing historical ties with Belgrade and Moscow.
At the same time, the ruling elite was formed from an alliance led by the Social Democratic Party, headed by Milo Djukanovic, who played a pivotal role in the process of independence and openness to the Western region.
In recent years, the country has witnessed a gradual institutional transformation, represented by reforming the electoral system, modernizing the judiciary, and expanding the margin of political freedoms. However, this process remained burdened by accusations of corruption, favoritism, and politicization of the judiciary. This limited the credibility of the new ruling elite before its citizens and before European institutions, but that did not prevent it from achieving great diplomatic success by joining NATO in 2017.
This step sparked Russia’s anger and Serbia’s resentment, and coincided with exposed security breach attempts, most notably the failed coup attempt in 2016, in which elements loyal to Moscow and Belgrade were accused of planning to overthrow the government on the eve of the elections and prevent its joining the alliance.
On the security front, the country has sought to build a small, professional army compatible with NATO standards, and has placed increasing importance on combating cyber and media threats believed to originate from Russia or its local proxies.
As for relations with the European Union, Montenegro has been one of the most prominent candidate countries for accession since 2010, and opened official negotiations in 2012, but the accession process has witnessed a clear slowdown since 2019 due to internal political tensions.
The war between Russia and Ukraine was reflected in Montenegro, as it strengthened the political and geocultural division, and revived the historical roles of Russian-Serbian influence in the country.
Economically, the sanctions imposed on Russia and the partial cut off from some traditional markets represented a double economic challenge for Podgorica, which relies heavily on tourism, remittances, and foreign investments.
Geocultural overlap and geopolitical competition
The relationship between Montenegro and Serbia is classified as one of the most complex and intertwined, as Belgrade has maintained a strong cultural and religious influence in the country, justifying this by the presence of a Serbian minority in the country, which it has remained part of for long periods.
Thus, the relationship between the two countries is neither a relationship of traditional hostility nor a declared alliance, but rather a volatile mixture of competition, interference, and internal division, and its danger lies in its ability to have a profound impact on political and social stability.
In this context, Montenegro’s position has become, for major powers, a strategic place and a target for Western and Russian influence projects, with the emergence of new roles for Middle Eastern and Asian powers seeking to fill the voids.
For its part, Russia has used energy and the economy as means of pressure, through investments in the transportation and real estate sectors, and motivating anti-Western political elites, while the European Union is using the accession card to make the country its first partner.
The United States expressed its interest in the country through NATO, which it joined in 2017, and considered it an important geopolitical achievement for Washington in the face of Moscow.
In light of the competition over this country and its strategic location, China has formed its presence through infrastructure, and Türkiye has intensified its presence in the fields of culture, education, and religion.
Challenges of identity, economics and sectarianism
The internal challenges facing the Republic of Montenegro constitute the heart of the dilemmas that hinder its progress and stability. The most prominent of these challenges are: ethnic and religious divisions that are divided between Serbs and Montenegrins, and other minorities such as Albanians, Bosniaks, and Croats, in addition to sectarian and religious pluralism that includes Orthodox, Muslims, and Catholics.
On the economic side, the country suffers from slow growth, high unemployment rates, and heavy dependence on volatile sectors such as tourism and financial transfers from abroad. These conditions worsened with the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which affected the flow of investments and traditional markets.
In this context, religious and sectarian diversity in Montenegro is a central factor in the dynamic that shapes national identity, as churches and mosques, as well as religious associations, constitute important poles of social and political interaction.
Challenge scenarios
Based on these data and extrapolation of variables, 3 scenarios can be proposed for the country’s future to face future challenges. These scenarios are:
The first scenario: deepening Western integration
It depends on the success of the political elite in joining the European Union, and this path will help form a comprehensive national identity based on citizenship and democratic values, while reducing the severity of ethnic and religious divisions.
The second scenario: sliding towards internal unrest
This scenario assumes the exacerbation of political and social divisions, and the escalation of external interventions, especially Russian and Serbian ones, leading to a state of internal turmoil that may develop into severe political or security crises.
Third scenario: maintaining the status quo
In this possibility, the country remains in a state of fragile stability. This scenario may witness a relative containment of conflicts through internal and external power balances, but at the same time it leaves the country in a state of constant weakness and exhaustion, with the absence of a clear vision for an independent and stable future.
The success of one of these particular scenarios remains linked to several factors, the most important of which are local political management and regional and international support.
While the West is trying to impose a model that it deems appropriate, other powers, including Russia, are seeking to exploit weaknesses in order to intervene, which prolongs the crises and hinders the chances of a solution.
Thus, the Republic of Montenegro is at a crossroads between continuing the journey of construction and independence, and sliding into a spiral of conflicts that may return the country to a scene of violence and divisions.
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