The Chamber of Deputies generally approved the Federation Income Law for 2026, which estimates a collection of 10.2 billion pesos. The analysis highlights that it is taxes that keep the Government afloat, while Pemex’s income continues to be used to mitigate its financial problems.
To size it, The Ministry of Finance will collect 5.8 billion pesos in taxes as IVA, ISR e IEPS. That figure is equivalent to more than four times oil revenues, which next year will represent 1.2 billion.
Marco Aurelio Núñez Cué, tax lawyer at the Universidad Panamericana, said that the increase in collection is due to the control measures implemented by the Government. He highlighted that most of the resources to be obtained – not counting the debt – will be tax revenues. “Tax collection increased and that is why higher incomes are projected.”
This year, 5.2 trillion in tax collection are projected, which represents more than 600 billion additional pesos by 2026. “Among these revenues is the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS), which will have significant increases due to the rise in products such as sugary drinks, cigarettes and violent video games, among others considered harmful to health.”
The specialist criticized that Pemex will not provide significant additional income due to the deficit it faces, despite the investment announced by the Ministry of Finance. In other words, oil revenues will only increase by 62,256 million pesos, but they will go to current spending and the payment of their debt.
The Government will continue to cover a large part of Pemex’s financial obligations next year, but ensures that in 2027 the company will generate sufficient resources to pay its debts. There is a goal of producing 2.6 million barrels per day, while last year it closed at 1.6 million.
On the other hand, of the total income, 1.7 trillion pesos will come from financing or bank loans, a record figure.
“The debt ceiling is dangerous,” warned Antonio Sánchez Sierra, academic at the Department of Fiscal Studies at the UdeG. “It reduces the ability of international banks to lend us money in the event of a contingency.” The main destination of this debt will be for the payment of the debt itself, “but also for social assistance and priority works. We are financing social spending with public debt.”
Regarding the Income Law in general, Sánchez Sierra explained that the projected increase is not due to better collection, but rather to greater oversight and persecution of taxpayers. He also questioned the reform of the Tax Code, which increases surveillance over taxpayers without addressing the informal economy.
During the discussion in the Chamber of Deputies, tension broke out between legislators from Morena, PAN and PRI. Alfonso Ramírez Cuéllar (Morena) challenged deputies José Elías Lixa (PAN), Rubén Moreira (PRI), Federico Döring and Margarita Zavala from the rostrum to debate the viability of the economic package and debt. The exchange escalated when Moreira took the stand to complain, generating screams among legislators.
The opinion considered the economic policy forecasts to be correct, which They project GDP growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% annually, an average exchange rate of 19.3 pesos per dollar, oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day and an average price of 54.9 dollars per barrel.
Federal Government Revenue Law 2026
- Total: 10.2 billion pesos
- Main Taxes: 5.8 billion pesos
- Financing (credits): 1.7 billion pesos
- Oil revenues: 1.2 billion pesos
- IMSS fees and contributions: 0.6 billion pesos
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