What will Putin’s trip to Budapest be like? | policy

Choosing the Hungarian capital, Budapest, to hold the second summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was not a random decision. Trump described the Hungarian Prime Minister by saying, “Orban is a man I love, and Putin loves him too.”

Viktor Orban is known for his departure from the European consensus regarding the war in Ukraine, and he enjoys good relations with both Trump and Putin, and his government is also famous for hosting leaders wanted for arrest by the International Criminal Court, as happened when he received Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who hosted him last April.

Although Hungary is still a member of the International Criminal Court – despite announcing its intention to withdraw from it next April – it is likely that Budapest will not abide by its legal duty to arrest Putin if he visits it.

However, Putin’s visit to Hungary, a country that has no maritime borders and is bordered by countries that are all members of NATO or the International Criminal Court, remains an adventure fraught with great security and political risks.

Does Putin risk arrest?

After their lengthy call – which lasted two and a half hours, according to the Kremlin spokesman – Putin and Trump agreed to hold a new summit to discuss the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine, but the place chosen was the capital of a member state of the European Union and a member of NATO, surrounded by countries with the same specifications.

The European Union imposed sanctions on Russia following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, including closing European airspace to Russian aviation.

According to the European Aviation Safety Agency, Russian commercial and private aircraft are prohibited from entering European Union airspace, with limited exceptions related to humanitarian or diplomatic cases, provided that exceptions are obtained from the countries concerned.

European sanctions are not the only obstacle to Putin’s travel, as he faces an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, against the backdrop of accusations of committing war crimes, especially the forced deportation of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children from the occupied territories.

All European Union countries – including Hungary – are members of the Criminal Court and signatories to the Rome Statute, which stipulates in Article 27 that the law applies to everyone without exception, including heads of state, which makes member states obligated in principle to cooperate with the court.

3 paths for Putin

The British newspaper The Telegraph reported under the title, “How can Putin reach Hungary without his plane being shot down or being arrested?” The Russian president risks arrest or attack as he flies to meet Trump.

The report prepared by the newspaper’s European affairs editor, James Crisp, identified 3 paths that Putin could take to reach Budapest:

Direct flights from Moscow to Budapest used to take about 3 hours, passing over Belarus and western Ukraine.

But flying in pre-war Ukrainian airspace is now practically impossible for Putin, because its skies are an incredibly active and risky war zone, especially across its western regions beyond Russian control.

Even if no official directive is issued to attempt to shoot down Putin’s plane, rogue forces possessing heavy weapons may attempt to launch an attack.

Another possibility for Putin is to take a five-hour route through Belarus to Poland before turning south through Slovakia to Hungary.

Slovakia, like Hungary, is remarkably sympathetic to Moscow despite its membership in the European Union.

Earlier this week, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico used his veto to block new European sanctions on Russia, and he also defied the European Union earlier this year by traveling to Moscow, where he shook hands with Putin and attended a Russian Victory Day parade.

Although this path may be easy with regard to Slovakia, it will not be so for Poland, as Poland has long complained about Russian drones penetrating its airspace, and has previously informed Russia that it should not “complain” if its planes or missiles are shot down over the territory of NATO countries.

Although the newspaper excludes the possibility of Warsaw targeting Putin’s presidential plane, because that targeting might ignite the fuse of World War III, it believes that the existence of this small possibility makes this path politically and militarily inappropriate for Putin.

Putin’s most logical route takes 8 hours and runs south to NATO member Türkiye, which has avoided cutting ties with Moscow.

Through Turkish airspace, Putin can avoid Greece and cross the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea before heading north towards Montenegro and then Serbia and Hungary.

Perhaps the only risk on this path is passing through Montenegro, a member of the International Criminal Court and NATO, while Serbia is still one of Russia’s few European allies.

There is precedent for such a complicated route, according to the Telegraph. Earlier this year, Netanyahu changed his usual flight path from Israel to New York, avoiding continental Europe and using the Strait of Gibraltar instead.

Does the flying Kremlin pass over NATO bases?

A report by the BBC’s European affairs correspondent, Paul Kirby, entitled “Could a ‘flying Kremlin’ cross EU airspace to Budapest?” That Putin will travel to Budapest on board the same presidential plane that carried him to the summit of Alaska, which is a modified “Ilyushin Il-96” passenger plane known as the “Flying Kremlin” and equipped with 4 engines and defense systems.

The report confirmed that Hungary – which does not overlook any seas – is not the easiest destination for a Russian president who rarely visits abroad and has not visited the European Union for years.

Kirby considered that since the skies of the European Union are forbidden to Russian aviation and since Putin will not take the train on his trip to Budapest, he will need a special permit if he decides to fly over any member state of the European Union.

The report found that among the most important European Union countries on Putin’s path to Budapest are Romania, which has what is expected to become NATO’s largest base in Europe, and Bulgaria, which is building a NATO base as part of its efforts to strengthen the alliance’s eastern defensive wing.

While the BBC did not receive a response from the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to comment on the matter, a Foreign Ministry spokesman in Bucharest told the channel that these issues are still just speculation at the present time, and that “Romania has not received a request to fly from the Russian Federation yet.”

The European Union.. contradictory statements

There is no doubt that Putin’s trip to Budapest seems embarrassing to the European Union, whether because it represents a symbolic breakthrough in the isolation that the Europeans imposed on Putin, or because the Russian and American presidents chose for their summit on Ukraine a country that has often violated the European consensus on supporting Ukraine.

European embarrassment is evident in the contradictory positions regarding Putin’s visit to Hungary. A Euronews report on the subject stated that the German Foreign Ministry urged Budapest to arrest Putin if he arrived there.

The website also quoted a senior European diplomat as saying, “If Putin lands in Budapest, his arrest would be the logical outcome, but no one will be surprised if Hungary does not do so.”

In turn, the “Ura Active” news network quoted European Commission spokesman Anwar Al-Aouni, in response to a question about the impact of the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court on the Budapest summit scheduled to be held, that the European Union remains “firmly committed to international criminal justice.”

Al-Aouni noted that although the process of Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC is underway, “it does not affect the state’s duty to cooperate with regard to investigations and proceedings initiated before that date.”

On the other hand, the “Ura Active” report also quoted other European diplomats that Europe would not obstruct holding a summit that might lead to peace.

Last Friday, European Commission spokesman Olof Gehl welcomed holding a meeting in Budapest between the US President and his Russian counterpart if it would help end the war in Ukraine.

Gill said, “We live in a real world, and meetings are not always held in the exact order or format we would like, but if the meetings move us towards a just and lasting peace for Ukraine, we should welcome them.”

EU foreign affairs spokeswoman Anita Heber also said that member states could issue exceptions to allow travel through their national airspace.

Orban warns against dragging the continent into war

Hours after Budapest was chosen as the venue for the summit, the Hungarian Prime Minister called Putin by phone and announced on his Facebook page that “preparations are underway.”

Orban praised his country as “the only place in Europe” where such a meeting could be held, stressing that the meeting will be held regardless of the challenges.

In perhaps an indication of the possibility of exposure to the Russian President during his travel to Hungary, the Russian newspaper Novosti reported that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned European Union leaders of the danger of dragging the Old Continent into war, intentionally or wrongly.

The Russian newspaper quoted Orban as saying, “The danger of dragging Europe into war – intentionally or accidentally – has now reached its greatest levels since the beginning of the conflict.”

The Hungarian Prime Minister denounced the positions of European Union leaders as obstructing efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully, stressing that had it not been for the intervention of the European side, the talks between the United States and Russia would have already led to a ceasefire.

Orban does not care much about the European Union’s support for Ukraine, and he was quick to clarify that the Union would have nothing to do with the upcoming talks in Budapest.

“Since the European Union is pro-war, it makes sense to exclude it from this peace process,” Orban told Radio Hungary last Friday.

In turn, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó affirmed that his country “will ensure that Russian President Putin enters the country and conducts successful negotiations here, then returns to his homeland.”

Szijjarto added – according to a BBC report – that “there is no need for any kind of consultation with anyone. We are a sovereign country. We will receive Putin with respect and host him, and we will provide him with the appropriate conditions to negotiate with the American president.”

Russian press: Choosing Budapest is a victory for Russia

The Russian newspaper Vedomosti quoted Vladimir Vasiliev, a researcher at the Institute of American and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as saying that choosing Budapest as a location for the upcoming summit is a symbolic victory for Russian diplomacy.

Vasiliev considered the Hungarian capital to be a more suitable location for Moscow, noting that this may strengthen Hungary’s position in its dispute with the European Union.

Vasiliev added that the upcoming talks in Budapest will symbolically represent Russia’s return to Europe.

The Russia Today news network reported that European authorities described the upcoming summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart, Donald Trump, in the Hungarian capital, Budapest, as a “political nightmare” for the European Union.

The network quoted those sources – which it did not reveal – as saying that it believes that holding the summit between Putin and Trump represents a disregard for Europe and puts the leaders of the Union and NATO in an embarrassing position.

She pointed out that officials in Brussels assure the media that the summit will be useful if it contributes to advancing the conflict settlement process in Ukraine.

However, it quotes European sources as confirming that the upcoming summit will be a “political nightmare” for the Union, and that Putin and Trump’s meeting may constitute a victory for the Russian leader.