This morning the emergence of tropical storm “Melissa” was announced, the first cyclone to form in the Caribbean during this season, and which is under surveillance by the National Hurricane Center.
Meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís reported that the system maintains maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour (kph), advancing slowly towards the west at about 22 kph, with a minimum central pressure of 1,003 mbar —according to the 8 p.m. update.
The specialized centers are analyzing the behavior of the phenomenon to determine its possible evolution.
Will it become a hurricane?
Although until now it is still classified as a tropical storm, it is not ruled out that it could reach hurricane status over the weekend, when it is located in the south of Haiti and Jamaica.
Tormenta Tropical #Melissacontinues without risk for #Yucatan.
It is located 1,620 km southeast of the state of Yucatán; It is moving west at 20 km/h, with winds of 85 km/h and gusts of 105 km/h. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/jrggnFjNL7
— Yucatan Civil Protection (@procivy) October 22, 2025
Palma Solís said in an interview that the storm originated from a tropical wave that left Africa in the middle of last week, showing signs of organization as it moved across the Atlantic.
This weekend in the Caribbean Sea it found favorable conditions—such as weak wind shears and warm waters—that fueled its strengthening.
“Since this weekend the possibilities have increased because ‘Melissa’ entered the Caribbean and is currently in an area where conditions are favorable for it to continue intensifying,” explained the meteorologist.
According to the forecast, the tropical storm will move very slowly towards the northwest over the next few days and could remain stationary starting Friday in the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Haiti. Its possible intensification into a hurricane would occur on Saturday.
At that point, the meteorologist explained, the system will continue to receive energy from the sea, which will help it gain strength before starting to move again.
So far it does not represent a threat to the region, since the most probable scenarios suggest that the system will head north, towards Cuba and the Atlantic.
“Stuck” in the Caribbean
The specialist added that “Melissa” seems “stuck” in the Caribbean because the presence of two anticyclones has it practically “boxed in.”
“The first, associated with a cold front north of Cuba, prevents it from advancing north; the second is over the Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico. It is as if it had a dome on one side and another on top and that leaves it there, bouncing between the two,” he explained.
As long as both anticyclones maintain their position, the system will continue to be parked at sea, which significantly reduces the probability that it will approach Yucatecan territory.
However, Palma Solís added that if the northern anticyclone moves eastward, it could make way for a cold front that “hooks” the phenomenon and drags it towards Cuba and the Atlantic.
This cold front—if the forecast is true—would arrive for the deceased and take away the system, in addition to reinforcing anticyclonic protection over the Yucatecan Peninsula.
Palma Solís recalled that the cyclone season does not end until November 30 and more systems could still form in the Caribbean during the coming weeks.
“Even if this cold front arrives and takes ‘Melissa’ away, that does not mean that the season is over. There may still be more activity in November,” he concluded.— Karla Cecilia Acosta Castillo
Is Yucatán on “Melissa’s” route?
Although current models indicate that tropical storm “Melissa” does not represent a danger to Yucatán, meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma insisted on the importance of staying informed and not becoming complacent.
Monitoring
“The atmosphere is changing and forecasts are constantly updated,” he recalled.
Related
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