Corruption does not arise by spontaneous combustion: it needs oxygen, hierarchy and, above all, silence. Much silence.
If we manage to abstract ourselves from the gossip for a moment and put aside the foolish drift and torrentism that only distract us from what is important, we will clearly see that The Ábalos-Koldo-Cerdán case is not a story of filthy whores and bad-luck commission agents.
It is the moving portrait of a corrupt system that is supported by a braid of power, obedience and silence. Three visible custodians and a fourth figure that unites them: Pedro Sanchezconsent necessary. For now, out of the summary, but within the equation.
After the appearance of abalos before the Supreme Court and the decision of Koldo By not declaring, the dynamics of the case have taken a significant turn, which gives us the keys to where things are going to go: strategic silence, implicit political protection and coordination of the story.
By not declaring and not requesting his preventive detention, Koldo not only protects his own position, but also reinforces the narrative of partial impunity that surrounds Ábalos and, by extension, the president himself.
José Luis Ábalos upon his arrival at the Supreme Court last Wednesday.
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As with Ábalos, the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office has not requested preventive detention for Koldo, and this is not a minor detail. It is a clear message about the ability to protect certain actors while others, such as Cerdan They fulfill their visible sacrificial role.
Koldo García, considered by the UCO as “custodian and manager” of Ábalos’s money, becomes the piece that retains critical information and prevents new details from emerging that could unbalance the narrative that the PSOE tries to maintain. Namely, and in short: that these are a few bad apples, and that illegal financing of the party is anathema.
We thus confirm that corruption is not only economic, but also, and above all, narrative: Whoever controls the information controls the perception of guilt and protection.
Ábalos maintains freedom and public visibility. Koldo remains out of prison by dint of discretion and internal control. Cerdán fulfills his role as scapegoat. And Sánchez maintains the façade of distance.
Coordinated silence is, in this context, a weapon as powerful as documentary evidence, and generates a deterrent effect. Others involved know that revealing information would have consequences for themselves without substantially weakening the structure.
The braid remains firm, and the president remains tied in its very center, like a bridal ornament. Tidying up the sprawling bachelor apartment at any price to show it to the members of the Senate committee on October 30.
In short, considering everything we have seen and known, I would dare to venture a prediction.
The appearance of Koldo García, sealed by silence and the implicit support of the Prosecutor’s Office by not requesting his imprisonment, has consolidated the shared containment strategy: resist without speaking, let time cool the scandal.
The defense of Ábalos, now in the hands of Carlos Bautista —a prosecutor seasoned in terrorism and cases with high media exposure—reinforces that architecture. His technical profile and his knowledge of the judicial resources of the National Court point to a fundamental change. From political improvisation to procedural shielding.
The PSOE, therefore, does not only take refuge in the presumption of innocence. Rehearse a state defense.
From now on, the most likely scenario is sustained tension.
Ábalos will remain free, but more surrounded. Cerdán will remain in prison with room for eventual relaxation before the end of the year. And Koldo—already politically amortized—will continue to be the uncomfortable symbol of silence.
The UCO reports will set the pace. If they reinforce the idea of ”shared management” of funds, the judicial fence could tighten, and with it, political pressure.
But if the defenses manage to challenge evidence or sow doubts about the chain of custody, the case may enter that long judicial drift that ends up diluting responsibilities. The chronification of this acute patient would be a good ally for a legislature that has a lot of ICU.
Regarding political wear and tear, it is difficult to assess how deep the ground of credibility of the Pedro Sánchez government and the PSOE itself that supports it lies. Bautista’s entry on the scene It could contain judicial damage, but not symbolic damage.
Spain has learned to live with corruption like someone who lives with a chronic illness, which hurts but does not kill. But if three custodians remain silent, the silence will begin to sound like consensus.
And if the perception of impunity catches on, if the Socialist Party does not offer a visible response—purge, self-criticism or renewal—the cost will not only be reputational. It will be moral, and more difficult to repair than any criminal process.
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