The European Union and its member states have shown limited attention to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has allowed China to significantly expand its influence in the region. Other countries, such as India, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, have also strengthened their links with ASEAN. All this in contrast to inaction on the part of the EU, a missed opportunity for both sides and a void that others ably fill. It also highlights yet another failure of imagination, initiative, courage and understanding of the game in that part of the world at the level of European external action. This scenario of inaccuracies is particularly relevant in a geopolitical area that is rapidly gaining importance in international relations.
Recently, the United States has also recognized the strategic value of ASEAN. Donald Trump will be present at this year’s summit, from October 26 to 28, in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia. In addition to meeting with the ten leaders of ASEAN – which will become eleven, with the formal admission of Timor-Leste, an important step towards the political, economic and cultural integration of the country in the region to which it actually belongs – the North American president will also have the opportunity to meet other prominent politicians, such as Narendra Modi, Li Qiang (Prime Minister of China), Sanae Takaichi (the new leader ultra-conservative party in Japan), Lula da Silva and Cyril Ramaphosa.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim also invited Vladimir Putin, a significant gesture, although the Russian president indicated that he would not be able to be present. Still, Russia will be represented at a high level. Until the announcement this Wednesday of the new American sanctions, the possibility of a last-minute participation by Putin could not be excluded, taking into account the media and political projection that this would have. Now, it is certain that Putin does not want to meet with Trump, unless he goes back and annuls this week’s decision.
Among the European guests, the Prime Minister of Finland and Giorgia Meloni, from Italy, who has already confirmed her presence, stand out. Meloni recognizes that his visibility at international events is essential for consolidating his internal policy. However, it remains uncertain who will represent the European institutions, with António Costa being one of the names mentioned behind the diplomatic scenes. If confirmed, his presence will be mainly symbolic, since much power, particularly the executive, resides in the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen.
The European Union needs to look at ASEAN with greater realism and commitment, reinforcing political and economic rapprochement with a group of countries that, together, constitute the third most populous region in the world (around 685 million people) and the fifth largest global economy. ASEAN is one of the drivers of the development of the so-called Global South and aims to play a prominent role in the construction of a new international order. Ignoring this reality would be a strategic mistake for Europe. Historically, Europeans feel closer to Africa and Latin America, but investing in Southeast Asia is increasingly an inevitable path for the coming decades. Furthermore, competition with China, Russia, India and the US will be more balanced if the EU manages to establish a solid relationship with the region.
The Kuala Lumpur summit will focus on four major themes considered priorities by Member States: economic cooperation, regional stability and security, renewable energy production (with the target of reaching 45% by 2030) and the deepening of free trade agreements with partners such as China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.
It will be significant that the summit does not address the serious political crisis affecting Myanmar, one of the ASEAN member states. This deliberate omission reflects the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of each State, one of the pillars of the Association, something that contradicts the project of political cooperation and clearly privileges economic interests. This stance, inspired in part by China, contributes to the distance between Europe and Southeast Asia, mainly due to the indifference of some ASEAN members towards human rights.
In this context, the messages that the European Union should convey at the Kuala Lumpur summit are clear. On the one hand, stating that we, the Europeans, consider that it would be mutually advantageous to deepen the full range of relations with ASEAN. On the other hand, expressing our conviction that respect for citizens is the only way to guarantee peace, strengthen international cooperation and prosperity in a sustainable way.
International security advisor.
Former UN Deputy Secretary-General
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