Driven by the problem of the Pakistani Taliban and the Durand Line crisis that demarcates the border between the two countries, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have become noticeably tense in recent years, and have entered a new phase of escalation in 2025, reaching direct military confrontation.
It goes without saying that the scope of these tensions goes beyond the narrow national framework to acquire intertwined regional and international dimensions, given the geopolitical importance enjoyed by the countries in South Asia.
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A direct military confrontation between the two countries would significantly affect economic projects and strategic security plans to combat terrorism and crime.
These concerns prompted regional and international parties to intensify mediation efforts, as negotiating rounds were held in Doha, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, which led to a truce that included a pledge not to support armed groups and to respect the national sovereignty of each party, but the continuity of this agreement remains dependent on careful follow-up and solid political will on both sides.
Regarding these overlapping and complex contexts, Al Jazeera Center for Studies published an analytical paper entitled “The military confrontation between Afghanistan and Pakistan: roots, repercussions and future scenarios“.
The paper prepared by Afghan researcher Aminullah Zakri reviewed the historical background of relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, monitored the course of new events and their causes, and also gave a glimpse into the possible repercussions of this conflict.
Historical relations
From its inception until today, relations between the two countries have been based on a foundation burdened by historical mistrust, geopolitical competition, and successive security transformations.
The Durand Line – which was drawn in 1893 between the ruler of Afghanistan at the time, Abdul Rahman Khan, and the representative of the British Indian government, Sir Mortimore Durand, is one of the most prominent axes of disagreement as a temporary agreement to determine the scope of influence between the two parties.
Although this line was established in the Rawalpindi Treaty in 1919, Afghanistan did not recognize it as an international border after the establishment of Pakistan in 1947.
This historical rejection has represented a constant source of tension, and has also transformed in the Afghan national consciousness into a symbol of resistance against the colonial legacy.
For its part, the State of Pakistan adheres to the legitimacy of this line, and considers it a basis for regulating its border relations with its neighbour.
At the beginning of the 1980s, Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan increased, as Islamabad provided broad support to Afghan jihadist factions in their war against the Soviet Union.
Pakistan continued to play its roles in the Afghan arena even after the events of September 11 and the subsequent transformations in the regional and international scene.
After the Taliban returned to power in 2021, the relationship was initially characterized by a kind of openness, but it soon moved to a new, more fragile and complex stage.
While Islamabad accuses the new government of Afghanistan of harboring members of the Pakistani Taliban movement inside Afghan territory, Kabul asserts that this movement is separate from it, and denies its official presence inside the country.
The beginning of the confrontation
The aerial bombardment carried out by Pakistan on the night of October 9, 2025, around the Abdul Haq intersection in Kabul, represented a central turning point in the course of recent tensions, as Islamabad claimed that the target of the operation was the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Noor Wali Mehsud.
For its part, the Afghan government considered the attack carried out by the Afghan army on its soil to be a clear violation of national sovereignty.
This attack caused a series of military counteractions in the border states, with accusations being exchanged of starting hostilities.
The study indicated that containing this crisis requires working on three parallel tracks:
- Commitment to ceasefire agreements, prevention of cross-border operations, and strict adherence to the distinction between military and civilian targets.
- Establish formal and transparent channels for investigation and accountability regarding mutual allegations.
- Activating the role of regional and international mediation to rebuild confidence and address the roots of security and political differences in the long term.
Divergent viewpoints
In light of recent developments it has become clear that The Afghan vision is based on three basic pillars:
- Defending national sovereignty.
- Accusing Pakistan of supporting terrorism.
- Determine Kabul’s position on the Pakistani Taliban.
The Afghan government asserts that these attacks represent a clear violation of the national airspace and sovereignty of Afghanistan, describing them as “provocative” and “irresponsible.”
On the other hand, Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of turning into a safe haven for these groups, and considers its inability to contain them a major reason for its military escalation.
This accusatory exchange led to the widening of mistrust and the invocation of military force as a pressure tool parallel to diplomacy.
Also The Pakistani vision is also based on three pillars:
- Fear of the activity of the Pakistani Taliban movement from Afghan territory.
- Repeatedly calling for the Kabul government to take concrete measures against it.
- Focus on common border security.
Regional and international dimensions
The study indicated that the existing tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan cannot be reduced to being only a bilateral dispute, but rather is a multi-level crisis with clear regional and international extensions.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – a strategic project within the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to link western China with the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea – is one of the most prominent areas affected by the escalation of this tension.
At the level of regional interactions, the positions of neighboring countries and international institutions reflect the extent of concern about the possibility of expanding the circle of conflict, as the United Nations – led by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres – called for restraint and the opening of a direct dialogue between the two parties.
In the same context, security experts warned of the absence of effective regional mechanisms for managing crises between the two parties, which makes the possibilities of sliding towards open confrontation more present and growing.
At the international level, the Russian and American competition in the region remains one of the most prominent matters that cast a shadow on the scene.
The study indicates that the continuation of the conflict may lead to security, political, legal and economic repercussions, which makes working to manage this crisis require a comprehensive approach based on active diplomacy and multilateral cooperation aimed at containing escalation and preventing the dispute from turning into a conflict that threatens regional stability.
Crisis scenarios
The study reviewed 4 paths to this crisis, and each path has its own transformations and repercussions.
First scenario: Pakistani air strikes continue
Continued Pakistani airstrikes and ground operations in cross-border areas – including around the capital, Kabul, and border areas such as Khost, Kunar, Nangarhar, and Bajaur – are plunging Afghanistan and Pakistan into a cycle of rampant violence.
This path will destabilize internal security in both countries, and will make returning to the path of peace and reconciliation more difficult.
Second scenario: failure of the talks
This path may lead to the severing of diplomatic relations between the two countries, and this results in weak coordination in the intelligence field, which other armed groups may exploit to expand their activity within the common borders of the two countries.
Third scenario: calming the situation
This path reflects mediation efforts aimed at reducing tension and stopping hostilities and direct confrontation.
In this context, in October 2025, discussions were held between Afghan and Pakistani delegations in Doha, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, and led to an agreement on an immediate ceasefire.
Fourth scenario: reaching an agreement
This scenario is the most ambitious, and is based on transforming the dispute into an opportunity to launch comprehensive regional cooperation, in which Afghanistan and Pakistan join forces with the participation of their neighbors (Iran, India, and the Central Asian republics) to establish new security treaties in South Asia.
The study concluded that Afghanistan and Pakistan need cooperation instead of confrontation, and that through dialogue, confidence-building and regional cooperation, a vision can be reached in which peace is not a distant dream, but rather an achievable reality.
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