At the company HR Ratings ratified the long-term rating of HR BBB+ (G)changing the Outlook from Negative to Stableand short-term HR3 (G) for the Sovereign Debt of our country.
He stated that the change in the perspective of Mexico sovereign rating arises from the improvement in the main fiscal metrics that HR Ratings evaluates, since a trend close to what was incorporated in the April 2024 rating action was shown.
“We estimate that the Debt to GDP (measured in terms of the Historical Balance) will end 2025 in 52.2% (52.3% in April), below what was projected in our November statement (54.0%), when we assigned the Negative outlook.”
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The report says that the Historical Balance (SH) closed 2024 at 51.3%“below our expectation in November, which was 52.2%. The fiscal consolidation efforts by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) “They have contributed to the projected improvement of the main fiscal balances towards the end of 2024 compared to our November statement, highlighting the adjustments in current and investment spending, accompanied by a positive dynamic in tax revenues.”
He stated that, as a result, the budget deficit (or Financial Balance) by 2025 estimated by HR Ratings is 3.7% of GDPwell below the 4.9% observed in 2024.
“We estimate that the deficit measured by the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector (RFSP) would drop to 4.3% at the end of 2025 vs. 5.7% in 2024.”
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