Turkish researcher: The fuel crisis in Mali threatens the state and may turn into a regional problem policy

The Turkish researcher specializing in African affairs, Fatih Dag, discussed the dimensions of the economic crisis that Mali has been facing since the beginning of last September as a result of acts of sabotage targeting the fuel sector, and the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country’s stability.

The writer said in an article published by the Center for Middle East Studies that the Al-Qaeda-linked “Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims” imposed a blockade on fuel supply corridors from neighboring coastal countries, targeting roads, warehouses, and generators, and caused an almost complete paralysis of the electricity network, public transportation, and cold chains, as well as a sharp rise in prices.

He added that the United States’ approval of the departure of non-essential employees and their families this week, followed by France and the Netherlands, intensified international concerns about this fragile situation in Mali.

In this context, Dagh says that gas stations in Bamako have become empty, public transportation has stopped, and hospitals are looking with apprehension at the coming days due to the lack of electricity, medicines and oxygen, while the price of a liter of gasoline has reached about 15 euros.

A tool for reshaping political reality

The writer draws attention to the fact that the blockade imposed on fuel supplies in Mali went beyond the economic nature and became a tool for reshaping the political reality in the country, as the “Supporting Islam and Muslims” group was able, through its control of the supplies, to impose itself as an authority that controls the details of daily life.

The writer points out that the organization is imposing strict social restrictions in the areas it controls, such as requiring women to wear the niqab on public transportation, and punishing those who violate its orders through violent measures, which reflects its transition from the field of military confrontation with the authorities, to playing the role of civil authority.

Fatih Dagh believes that this new reality made the conflict between the state and the organization revolve around controlling “the arteries of the economy and the movement of people” instead of controlling the land, which led to the erosion of the state’s legitimacy, adding that the military inability to break the siege pushed the authorities to a wave of dismissals within the security and military establishment and revealed deep rifts between the political leadership and the army.

Fatih Dagh: The blockade imposed on fuel supplies in Mali has gone beyond the economic nature and has become a tool for reshaping the political reality in the country.

Government reaction

The writer explains that, in light of this crisis, the government resorted to more isolation and censorship, by suspending elections, dissolving parties, and restricting the press, which led to the spread of rumors and a lack of transparency, and increased economic turmoil and popular anxiety.

He adds that the government’s reliance on the Russian “Africa Corps” to impose its control did not achieve the required stability despite intelligence support, in light of the inability to secure supply routes and the lack of transparency in energy distribution.

The writer believes that the government’s response, which is based on a show of force without actually changing policies and reforming governance institutions, will only lead to temporary solutions, and will allow the “Group to Support Islam and Muslims” to continue consolidating its power by controlling resources and population movement.

Regional risks

The writer adds that the impact of current events goes beyond Mali’s borders, because the economies of neighboring coastal countries depend on safe transit flows from Mali, which means that the crisis may deepen in the absence of security coordination and spread to other countries.

The writer proposes establishing a regional mechanism to exchange information in real time, coordinating plans to protect supplies, and sharing transportation and insurance costs through a common fund, to avoid the collapse of trade corridors in the African Sahel region.

The writer concludes that what Mali is facing today is not just a fuel crisis, but rather a comprehensive test of the state’s legitimacy and sovereignty, stressing that legitimacy is not achieved by slogans, but by returning fuel to stations, reducing queues, ensuring the continuation of services, and dispelling the fears of Malians.