My geopolitical calendar differs from the conventional one. The era of the 20th century, which was marked by two enormous war confrontations, the Cold War, decolonization and large-scale industrial expansion, ended in 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then, in my reading of history, the time of the 21st century began. We have entered a period of economic globalization, multilateralism and international cooperation, development of democratic regimes, and concern with sustainability and major global challenges.
My calendar also tells me that the 21st century was quite short. It seems to me to have ended with the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022. Times changed at that time, with the return to old practices, the undisguised use of military and economic force as determining factors in international relations. We are simultaneously witnessing an accelerated race for the future, based on technological transformations and the digital revolution. From concern about inequalities between people, there was insensitivity regarding development issues.
We are now in a strange and ambiguous period of universal history: we live in both the past and the future. We are connected through thousands of fiber optic cables and a growing number of satellites. Global information is instantaneous, but it seems that we are returning, with varying speed, to the old nationalist ideas, to every man for himself.
Indifference has become a hallmark of this new era. Excess data ends up numbing us. We become oblivious to what happens outside our closest circle. This apathy facilitates the manipulation of public opinion by populist, extremist political leaders, who use digital platforms to condition citizens’ behaviors. Paradoxically or not, the manipulators themselves end up hearing their own voices, and seem to believe in the narratives they create. They thus feed the cycle of misinformation and collective distancing in relation to the major issues that remain unresolved.
In this context, commitment to critical thinking becomes fundamental. It is necessary to know how to question, analyze and interpret the intentions that the messages hide. Developing the ability to ask pertinent questions and assess the credibility of sources is essential to avoid manipulation and conformity. As Socrates already argued 2,500 years ago, exploring alternative ideas and challenging established opinions is politically indispensable in democracy.
This reflection originated from a recent comment, made on one of our television channels, about the new Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile, known in Russia as 9M730 Burevestnik and in NATO as Skyfall. Vladimir Putin announced that on October 21 the missile had been launched and that the test was a success. He added that the device was in the air for 15 hours, traveled more than 14 thousand kilometers, and could therefore be directed to a target in the most remote corner of the planet. He also stressed that no other State has the capacity to intercept it. In other words, Russia claimed to have taken another step towards consolidating its place in the front ranks of the new era, the era of confrontation and force.
The commenter, a person I consider, said that Trump had “stupidly” ignored Putin’s announcement. There was no reason for Trump’s obliviousness.
I think it is important to try to understand this apparent disdain. I say apparent because yesterday the American president ordered his armed forces to begin a nuclear testing program, something that had not happened in more than three decades.
In my analysis, Trump, who has been spending the week in Asia, is not afraid of Russia nor is he particularly interested in Putin, except when it comes to Russia’s war against Ukraine. He wants to add peace in Ukraine to his list of would-be peace treaties, always obsessed with the Nobel Peace Prize. At this moment, today Friday, he is convinced that Putin is the biggest obstacle on the way to a ceasefire. Saturday, we’ll see soon.
Other than that, it has become very clear these days that the absolute priority of the North American administration is rivalry with China. His tour of Asia sought to show the influence and power of the United States in a region increasingly close to China. That’s why Trump was in Malaysia, at the ASEAN summit, then in Japan, South Korea and showed moderation in yesterday’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. In addition to the trade agreements, several of them linked to the cutting-edge technologies that will define the coming years, the success of Trump’s presence in Asia and the adulation he has received have reinforced his illusion that the US has a decisive influence in that part of the globe. Putin’s missile, however powerful it may be, something that has yet to be confirmed, does not weigh on Trump or distract him, as he considers the relationship with Asia to be a fundamental priority, within the framework of competition with China.
It gives, as I believe, a superficial and equivocal reading of reality. You need to understand that this new century starting in 2022 seems to be heading towards the de facto consolidation of the strategic alliance between China and Russia.
International security advisor.
Former UN Deputy Secretary-General
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