Will the United States attack Venezuela or not? That is the question that has been on the minds of geopolitical experts all weekend. In the absence of confirmation or pertinent denial, what can be done to try to guess which direction the wind will blow in the coming days, or weeks, is to look at the deployment that the United States has been carrying out since August in the Caribbean and compare it with other previous deployments that did lead to military offensives.
Today Washington has in those waters an aircraft carrier – the USS Gerald R. Ford –, an amphibious assault ship – the USS Iwo Jima –, six destroyers, two cruisers, a nuclear submarine and several support ships. In addition, the Pentagon has sent fifteen F-35 fighters to its bases in Puerto Rico, B-52 bombers, countless drones and 186 Tomahawk-class cruise missiles; 36 more than those used during the military campaign carried out in 2011 to overthrow the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafiaccording to data obtained by Traffic lights.
That is to say: right now what is in front of Venezuela is more similar to what was used during the 1991 Gulf War than to what was used during the campaign a few years ago against ISIS.
In addition to all of the above, the United States has also deployed some 20,000 military personnel to the Caribbean, including special operations groups. A small part of all the active personnel of the world’s leading power (1.3 million people without counting reservists or the National Guard).
Opposite, according to an academic at the Institute for Strategic Studies of the United States Army War College called Evan Ellisthe Venezuelan armed forces would barely reach 100,000 professional soldiers. They would not exceed that figure even by adding the troops that make up the National Guard – 23,000 uniformed men – nor the 15,000 marines.
“The imbalance in military firepower is undeniable,” explains Ellis. “Maduro’s small number of Igla-S man-portable anti-aircraft weapons could destroy a handful of American helicopters, but few are likely to be in working condition, and even these may not be in the hands of those who know how to use them.”
“Such a military force has the capacity to confront almost any country in the world,” says the geopolitical analyst. Michael Shurkin in reference to what the United States has deployed in the Caribbean. “And much more so if what is in front of us is a third-rate military power like Venezuela.”
The call
Tensions between Washington and Caracas reached a new level a few days ago. It was after a three-way phone call –Donald Trumphis Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his own Nicolas Maduro– organized by Brazil, Qatar and Türkiye in order to bring positions closer together. Quite the opposite happened.
According to the Miami Heraldone of the main newspapers in Florida and the medium that has aired the details of the conversation, during which Maduro wanted to negotiate his departure from power.
First by demanding “a global amnesty for any crimes he and his group may have committed” and then, seeing that Trump and Rubio said no, agreeing to hold free elections on the condition that, regardless of the result, the Venezuelan armed forces would remain under his control.
Trump and Rubio again refused, but they did offer to guarantee “a safe transfer for him, his wife Cilia Flores and his son” if he agreed to immediately renounce power and leave the Latin American country. Then it was Maduro who answered no.
A few days after that call, which ended abruptly, Trump came out publicly to say that Venezuelan airspace should be considered “totally closed.” After reading that, Maduro tried to talk to him, but the North American president, explains the Heraldrefused to get on the phone.
The Cartel of the Suns
At this point it is worth remembering that officially, according to the White House, the US military deployment in the Caribbean has only one purpose: to combat drug trafficking. That is to say: eliminate criminal organizations that send drugs to the United States through Venezuela.
However, according to the White House, the Venezuelan criminal network has a main protagonist: the Cartel of the Suns. A rather abstract name that would supposedly cover a whole series of high-ranking officials of the Venezuelan armed forces dedicated to moving large quantities of drugs and linked, according to Washington, to Maduro’s circle. In fact, the State Department is offering $50 million for the capture of the Venezuelan leader and Trump has recently called him “the biggest drug trafficker in the world.”
In short: according to the logic presented by the White House, fighting against drug trafficking and fighting against the regime of Nicolás Maduro are the same.
“Maduro is a ruthless dictator and the Venezuelan people voted decisively against him,” another prestigious geopolitical analyst commented this Monday: Ian Bremer. “None of that is in doubt, but if Trump unilaterally decides on regime change, the United States will be responsible for the result.”
For now, the US military campaign has focused on ‘intercept’ –ergo flying through the air – boats that would be transporting drugs from the Venezuelan coast to other Caribbean territories to, from there, proceed to their distribution. These attacks have already claimed some 80 lives while international law specialists cry out against such a modus operandi.
And now… what are the next steps to follow? For now, Trump met this Monday with Rubio and with Pete Hegseththe head of the Pentagon, to discuss the roadmap. There will be news soon, then.
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