With more than half of the records processed, Honduras faces a significant political upheaval. Businessman Nasry “Tito” Asfura and television presenter Salvador Nasralla dispute the presidency vote by vote, while the official candidate Rixi Moncada is relegated to a distant third place.
The National Electoral Council reports that Asfura and Nasralla each have around 40% of the votes, separated by a little more than 500 votes. In contrast, Moncada does not reach 20%, despite state deployment and the support of related governments in Latin America.
The collapse of the ruling party and new map of power
The race is not only close: it marks a significant political turn. Official candidate Rixi Moncada—backed by President Xiomara Castro and the left-wing regional allies Honduras has cultivated in recent years—was relegated to a distant third place with about 19 percent of the vote.
In Congress, the collapse is even deeper: Libre loses strength in key departments and gives ground to the National Party and the Liberal Party, which together could build a majority capable of redrawing the institutional map.
The setback occurs despite the fact that Castro consolidated alliances with progressive governments of
Mexico, Colombia, Brazil and Venezuela, and despite the fact that Honduras had been a relevant piece within the left-wing Latin American bloc. However, the 2025 campaign took place under the weight of cross-claims of corruption, internal fractures and an electorate tired of ideological tensions. The narrative of anti-communism, reactivated from Washington and from regional conservative sectors, contributed to wearing down the ruling party.
External interventions that tense the conflict
In this context, the interventions of foreign actors added a layer of pressure
unusual. Trump not only openly asked to vote for Asfura; also threatened to
cut American aid if his candidate does not win and announced his intention to
pardon former president Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted of drug trafficking in the US, a gesture that was directly linked to the National Party. Honduran analysts pointed out that this intervention would have reduced Nasralla’s initial advantage.
Added to this were external supports such as that of the Argentine president Javier Milei, who
He urged a “defeat of narcosocialism.”
On the opposite side, Nicolás Maduro expressed sympathy towards Moncada, while congressmen
Americans of Cuban origin warned against an eventual victory for Libre. The accumulation of messages evidenced the growing regional dispute over Honduran political orientation.
Mexico also remained attentive to the electoral process. Castro’s recent visit to
National Palace made clear the interest of both governments in coordinating
development and cooperation to stop forced migration.
President Claudia Sheinbaum stressed the importance of the popular will being
respected “without external interference,” a message that resonated amid complaints about
foreign interventions in the Honduran conflict.
For his part, businessman Ricardo Salinas Pliego called to support Asfura from his
social networks.
A key country on the Central American board
The geopolitical importance of the country explains this attention. Honduras is a corridor
strategic location in the Northern Triangle, hosts the Soto Cano military base—one of the most
of the United States in the region—and is at the center of a struggle for
influence between Washington and Beijing, after the Castro government broke
relations with Taiwan in 2023 to recognize China.
Its institutional fragility, the weight of remittances and migratory pressure make it a nerve center for the hemispheric agenda.
As the counting continues and records with inconsistencies are verified, the
uncertainty. Without a second round, the next president will be the one who obtains a margin
even minimal. The outcome will define not only the course of the country, but also the balance
regional at a time of strong political polarization.
The post The left fades in Honduras in a close election appeared first on Veritas News.
