Donald Trump backed down from threats of tariffs and using military force against Greenland yesterday, saying he had agreed to the ‘framework of a future deal’.
After a whirlwind 72 hours at Davos – where numerous leaders warned about the death of the post-war world order – Trump appeared to have performed a dramatic U-turn.
‘I think it’s a really good deal for everybody…it’s a deal that everybody’s very happy with,’ he told reporters in a corridor at the World Economic Forum meeting.
But the precise details of this ‘concept of a deal’ remain unclear.
One diplomatic source told Sky News that there was no ‘framework yet’.
The unnamed official believed that the US president was just looking for an ‘off-ramp’ after getting himself into a sticky and unpopular diplomatic tangle.
However, some early indications of what the deal could look like are emerging.
‘Greenland’s sovereignty is not up for negotiation’
Trump’s claims to have established a future deal ‘framework’ came after his meeting with Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary general.
Rutte says he did not propose, or even discuss, any compromise on Greenland’s sovereignty during their discussion.
Mette Frederiksen, the Danish prime minister, has reiterated this stance.
‘We cannot negotiate on our sovereignty. I have been informed that this has not been the case,’ she said.
If Trump has agreed to Greenland’s sovereignty, it would represent a significant climbdown, given he’d previously refused to rule out annexation.
‘Arctic sentry’ to be established
There is now talk of an ‘Arctic sentry’, which appears to be a bolstered, Nato-led security arrangement for Greenland.
Greenland is strategically crucial, and growing more so due to climate change.
Trump has meanwhile talked up the risk of Chinese and Russian military influence in the Arctic.
Yvette Cooper, the UK foreign secretary, compared the proposed ‘Arctic Sentry’ to Nato’s ‘Baltic Sentry’, launched in January last year.
That was an agreement to deploy warships, drones, maritime patrol aircraft, and advanced surveillance systems in the region to deter Russian aggression.
Why Trump wants Greenland
Arctic security
Greenland sits in the Arctic Circle, where China and Russia have been jostling for military influence.
Greenland provides an outpost in a vital naval corridor connecting the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic.
Icecaps melting due to climate change mean the once nearly unnavigable ocean is becoming more spacious, opening up new shipping routes.
Rare resources and minerals
Stacks of rare resources are buried deep inside Greenland, with 31 out of 34 materials that Europe sees as ‘critical’ found there.
As well as cobalt, nickel, copper and titanium-vanadium, the island is rich in gold, platinum and diamonds.
Many metals are used to make batteries, electric vehicles and other high-tech items. It may also have pools of oil and gas.
However, the US could be allowed to establish ‘sovereign bases’ on Greenland as part of the arrangement, The Telegraph reported.
This could be similar to the UK’s agreement with Cyprus, which means some British bases on the island are considered British territory.
Trump also said talks were ongoing concerning a US missile defence shield that would be partially based in Greenland.
Britain and Norway backed the idea of an ‘Arctic Sentry’ last week.
Direct discussions to continue
When Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers met Trump’s team last week, they agreed to set up a ‘working group’ to find a compromise.
That hope was to come to an agreement that satisfied US concerns, and Greenland’s territorial integrity.
Plans to establish this ‘working group’ have been reaffirmed, with Trump reportedly choosing the American participants of the group.
Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen seemed to think this was progress in the right direction.
‘The day ended better than it started,’ he said. ‘Now, let’s sit down and find out how we can address the American security concerns in the Arctic while respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark,’ he said.
More work to be done
Nato appears to have gained some breathing space after a white-knuckle ride through Washington’s torrent of threats this past week.
The threat of additional 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland is off the table.
And fears of a US military invasion have been tempered.
‘I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force. All the United States is asking for is a place called Greenland,’ he told the World Economic Forum meeting in a rambling speech full of spurious claims.
But European leaders are keen to show there’s no clear conclusion in sight yet.
The Dutch prime minister, Dick Schoof, branded Trump’s decision to waive threatened tariffs against European allies a sign of ‘de-escalation’.
Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, welcomed the latest development, but said there remained ‘a lot of work to be done’.
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