Our Predictions for 2026 Oscar Winners in Major Categories

The 2026 Oscar nominations, announced Thursday morning, carried many surprises and just as many snubs. In a relative rarity, there are a number of categories which lack a clear-eyed favorite. While in year’s past there are categories which have for months signaled a clear winner (of which there are several this year), there are an equal number of categories in which the winner will remain a complete mystery until the victors are announced on March 15. Below are our picks for the likely winner in each major category, as well as those who should walk away with the trophy.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibdsottir Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Should win: Amy Madigan. Taylor and Madigan are equally deserving, both turning in performances that dominated their respective films despite having only around 40 minutes of screen time apiece. (It’s the antithesis of last year’s nominees, which included winner Zoe Saldaña’s leading turn in Emilia Perez.) Ultimately, we adored Madigan’s literally-unrecognizable turn in Weapons despite being unaware it was her until the closing credits, but her nomination (and hopefully a big, fat check for that Aunt Gladys prequel) is her win.

Will win: Teyana Taylor, who continued to dominate One Battle After Another even after her character exited the picture. She’s been the favorite to win since the film was released in September, and for good reason.

Makeup/Hairstyling

Frankenstein; Kokuho; Sinners; The Smashing Machine; The Ugly Stepsister

Should win/Will win: This is Frankenstein’s award to lose. It may not sweep many (or any) other categories, but this is a safe place for the Academy to recognize del Toro’s singular vision and Elordi’s prosthetics-heavy performance.

Original Score

Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix; Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat; Hamnet, Max Richter; One Battle After Another, Johnny Greenwood; Sinners, Ludwig Göransson

Should win: Johnny Greenwood, whose wickedly propulsive and eclectic score was one of the best in years.

Will win: It’s a close call, but Ludwig Göransson seems to have the tip over Greenwood with voters. With One Battle having all but secured the major categories, this is a chance for them to express some love for Sinners, which was as close to a musical as a non-musical gets. Göransson’s exceptional soundtrack was Sinners’ best attribute, seamlessly blending old-school southern jug rock with more modern sensibilities, and it was the backbone of Coogler’s film.

Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Will Tracy; Frankenstein, Guillermo del Toro; Hamnet, Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell; One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson; Train Dreams, Clint Bentley, Gred Kwedar

Should win/Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson. His screenplay, “inspired” by Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland, is a labyrinthine but always clear-headed descent into controlled chaos.

Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, Robert Kaplow; It Was Just an Accident, Jafar Panahi and script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian; Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie; Sentimental Value, Eskil Vogt, Joaquim Trier; Sinners, Ryan Coogler

Should win: It Was Just an Accident leavened its difficult subject matter with wit and a redemptive, surprisingly populist but no less powerful arc.

Will win: Ryan Coogler for Sinners. We thought it was a baggy retread of From Dusk till Dawn, but we’re obviously in the slim minority. It’s a sure-fire winner in this category, especially as One Battle will defeat it in the more substantial races. There are strong, but not particularly hearty, contingents in favor of Blue Moon and It Was Just an Accident; but many who believe Anderson will prevail in the Best Director category see this as something of a consolation prize for Coogler.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Should win: Delroy Lindo, who was the beating heart of Sinners. This is his first nomination despite decades of acclaimed work.

Will win: Most likely Sean Penn, who’s been the favorite for months. But if anyone could unseat him, it’s Lindo. His nomination was hardly a sure thing, and it was met with an emphatic reaction in the room when the nominations were read. The buzz around the Sinners scene stealer has only grown in the hours since, making for the possible but somewhat unlikely scenario that he could prevail over Penn.

Achievement in Casting

Hamnet—Nina Gold; Marty Supreme—Jennifer Venditti; One Battle After Another—Cassandra Kulukundis; The Secret Agent—Gabriel Domingues; Sinners—Francine Maisler

Should win: Jennifer Venditti’s work on Marty Supreme brought together artists from disparate corners to fill out the sprawling cast: Tyler, the Creator; Gwyneth Paltrow; underground filmmaker Abel Ferrara; magician Penn Jillette; and comedians Fran Drescher and Sandra Bernhard, all of whom disappear into their roles. The same could be said on the same scale for Gabriel Domingues’ work on The Secret Agent, which poached a variety of Brazilian veterans and newcomers alike. 

Will win: The category’s first winner will be one of the safe bets—either Francine Maisler for Sinners, or Cassandra Kulukundis for One Battle After Another. Both are relative veterans of the industry, but it’s probably tipped in Maisler’s favor.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from K-Pop Demon Hunters; “I Lied To You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Should win: “I Lied to You”

Will win: You can’t deny the momentum of “Golden”

International Feature

The Secret Agent, Brazil; It Was Just an Accident, France; Sentimental Value, Norway; Sirāt, Spain; The Voice of Hind Rijab, Tunisia

Should win: The Secret Agent is a staggering piece of work and the magnum opus of director Kleber Mendonça Filho.

Will win: The safe bet is Sentimental Value; but no matter what, it’ll be indie-distributor-that-could Neon. Sentimental Value just swept the European Film Awards, and director Joaquim Trier was previously nominated in 2023, for Best Original Screenplay for Worst Person in the World. His presence in the Best Director category, as well as his good-standing amongst voters, will likely net him the win here.

But hot on its tail is the distributor’s The Secret Agent. Surprise (and emphatically embraced) nominations for Best Picture and Best Actor indicate an astonishing level of momentum for Filho’s thriller, which is still little-seen amongst audiences. Favor for the film is especially strong amongst the Academy’s international voters. Because it won’t win in the major categories for which it’s nominated, it’s not unlikely that The Secret Agent could steal this category.

Animated Feature

Arco (Neon); Elio (Walt Disney); K-Pop (Netflix); Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain (GKIDS); Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney)

Should win/Will win: Zootopia 2

Editing

F1, Stephen Mirrione; Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie; One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen; Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté; Sinners, Michael Shawver

Should win/Will win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another. Jurgensen crafted one of the year’s quickest-moving thrillers despite it being one of the longest. At 162 minutes, it feels a third of its length.

Cinematography

Frankenstein, Dan Laustsen; Marty Supreme, Darius Khondji; One Battle After Another, Michael Bauman; Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw; Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso

Should win: Adolpho Veloso, whose masterfully evocative photography in Train Dreams catapults viewers into the action in a way that few recent films have accomplished.

Will win: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Maura, The Secret Agent

Should win/Will win: Timothée Chalamet. Though Hawke gave a career-best performance in Blue Moon and Maura anchored The Secret Agent’s complicated narrative, this is Chalamet’s year for victory. The only potential upset could be Michael B. Jordan, who was acclaimed for his dual role. But Chalamet’s victory at the Globes, combined with a sense amongst voters that he’s due an Oscar, will push him over the top.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia

Should win: Rose Byrne, who gave one of the year’s most compelling and brilliantly modulated performances in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You

Will win: Most likely Jessie Buckley, though this race could go a number of ways. Buckley’s Globes win—coupled with voter consensus that, like Chalamet, she’s due—positions her as the clearest frontrunner.

But older voters are particularly fond of Kate Hudson’s deservedly-lauded turn as a bright-eyed singer cut down by a life-altering injury. It’s the star’s second nomination after her 2000 supporting category nom for Almost Famous, and many are digging the renaissance narrative. But it’s the only nomination for Song Sung Blue, which means Hudson’s performance is one of the only things voters liked about Craig Brewer’s movie.

Byrne is a distant possibility, though she has a greater edge than she would’ve in most any other year. And there’s always the possibility that Emma Stone could usurp the prize, as she did in 2024 when Lily Gladstone was the favorite to win for Killers of the Flower Moon. She was very good in Bugonia, but it’s not the strongest performance in this field.

Best Director

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Should win/Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson. He’s made some of the most beloved films of the last 30 years, but he’s never won Best Director. Many agree that One Battle After Another is his masterpiece, so it’s highly unlikely there will be an upset in this category. There’s some push in the direction of Coogler, but many recognize One Battle to be the better film of the two and that the younger director will have other opportunities for victory. There’s also the matter of legacy, which Anderson has wrapped.

Best Picture

Bugonia (Focus Features); F1 (Apple); Frankenstein (Netflix); Hamnet (Focus Features); Marty Supreme (A24); One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.); The Secret Agent (Neon); Sentimental Value (Neon); Sinners (Warner Bros.); Train Dreams (Netflix)

Should win/Will win: One Battle After Another. Anderson’s film is one of the rare Oscar-favorites to earn its stature. There will be the inevitable backlash once it wins, but there’s no arguing that One Battle is one of the most entertaining, pointed, and astonishing films of recent years (maybe even of all time). It’s Anderson’s magnum opus, and wholly deserving of the win.