As the world reels from what Trump has dubbed the ’12-day war’ between Israel and Iran, we are faced with more questions than answers.
What kind of nuclear weapons does Israel possess — and how many? Could the conflict trigger a regional war, or World War III?
As a fragile ceasefire holds in the Middle East, understanding what is at stake is more important than ever.
This is everything we know about Iran, and Israel’s, nuclear arsenals.
Does Iran have nuclear weapons?
Iran is transparent about having a nuclear programme, but insists it has not developed weapons.
Tehran is a signatory of an important international accord designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, known as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (from here on out, we’ll call it the treaty).
The treaty, which came into force in 1970, has 191 signatories. Israel is not one of them, but more on that later.
Since the US pulled out of the treaty in 2018 (we have Trump to thank for that), Iran has ramped up production of fissile material — essentially, stuff that could be used, one day, to make a nuclear bomb.
Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons programme to do so.
Under a 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms.
During his second term in the Oval Office, Trump has been working to reach an agreement on curbing Iran’s programme.
There had been several rounds of talks between the US and Iran – up until the Israeli attacks – and Trump imposed new sanctions on Iran as part of his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign.
Since Israel’s surprise strikes on Iranian cities and nuclear sites on June 13, Iran’s parliament has approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is the UN’s nuclear inspector.
The Trump administration claims to have ‘severely damaged’ and even ‘obliterated’ Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.
But if Tehran pulls out of the IAEA, it makes it harder for independent experts to gauge how much damage really was inflicted by US and Israeli missiles.
How far is Iran from a nuclear bomb?
A nuclear bomb isn’t something you can build overnight. It all comes down to uranium enrichment.
Uranium contains a radioactive isotope called U-235, that can be used as a power source. The more refined it is – in other words, enriched – the more powerful. Power is increased by spinning U-235 in a container known as a centrifuge.
Nuclear power plants only need relatively unenriched uranium at 0.7% to 5%, while weapons-grade nuclear weapons require 90%.
The IAEA says Iran has about 400kg worth of uranium enriched to 60%. At 90% enrichment, this is enough for 10 warheads.
Iran Watch warns that the country could enrich enough uranium for one weapon in four months, and five weapons in one year and eight months. However, it’s worth noting that Iran would also need to build a warhead and a missile capable of delivering it.
If US claims about the extent of damage at Iran’s three nuclear sites prove correct, these efforts will have taken a massive hit.
Does Israel have nuclear weapons?
Israel’s military superiority in the Middle East comes not just through its conventional arsenal or the backing of the US, but from its rich nuclear arsenal.
Because it has never signed to the non-proliferation treaty, Israel is not subject to independent IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities.
Israel is widely believed to have one of the most advanced nuclear programmes in the world, but it has never confirmed or denied its existence.
Despite widespread acknowledgement by experts and former government officials of their existence, Israel has never confirmed this.
Since the 1960s, it has followed a policy of nuclear ambiguity. At the time, it went to great lengths to hide its nuclear ambitions from the international community, even its closest allies.
Even US inspectors were misled during early visits to the Nuclear Research Center near Dimona, in the Negev desert, which was initially described as a textile factory.
Today, estimates of its stockpile range between 90 and 400 warheads, all of which could be delivered by air, as cruise missiles fired from submarines and through the Jericho line of ballistic missiles.
A few days before Israel’s attack on Iran, in which dozens of people – most of them civilians – were killed, Iran had threatened to release a hoard of Israeli nuclear secrets it claims to have obtained.
Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, claimed the regime had obtained ‘a vast collection of strategic and sensitive documents, including plans and data on the nuclear facilities’.
Why has the US attacked Iran?
The US launched strikes against three nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz.
President Donald Trump announced from the White House: ‘Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.’
Trump has said Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons which could be used to attack Israel or other targets in the West.
Sir Keir Starmer backed the strikes, describing the nuclear programme as ‘a grave threat to international security’.
Could the Israel-Iran conflict lead to World War III?
Even after the involvement of the US, it is unlikely that it will result in a global conflict.
Jason Pack, fellow at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and host of the Disorder Podcast, told Metro that the Iranian regime has been ‘really weakened’.
He said: ‘The Iranians don’t have the capability to bring us to World War III.
‘It is much more likely to see the Iranian people rise up against the regime than we are to see the Iranians like land some decisive blow against Israel.’
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