The chances of winning big with Premium Bonds after February draw results revealed

More than 24 million people in the UK have NS&I Premium Bonds, which enters your savings into a monthly draw, offering tax-free prizes from £25 to £1 million.

The February draw saw two Brits, each with a holding of £50,000,becoming millionaires, while one extra lucky saver snagged £10,000 off the back of a of just £10.

But it really is a game of chance, and the chance you’ll end up with a return anywhere near to the annual prize fund rate of 3.6% — let alone that you’ll take home the jackpot — is also dependent on how much you have put away.

The prospects of winning a life-changing sum are also smaller these days, with August 2025 marking the latest in a series rate cuts, and some analysts predicting another fall sometime soon.

While the number of £1 million prizes available stayed at two per month, four fewer people were in with a chance of winning £100,000 (79 to 75) following the recent change.

Similarly, £50,000 prizes went from 159 to 151, while £25,000 prizes decreased from 317 to 302, and £10,000 prizes from 792 to 754. 

In fact, every category saw a reduction in winners, aside from the £1million jackpot and the £25 prize, which actually increased from around 2.2million to nearly 2.57million. And as a result, the odds of winning anything technically remain the same: 22,000 to one for every £1 Bond in the prize draw.

Andrew Westhead, NS&I retail director, said in August: ‘This adjustment to the Premium Bonds prize fund rate – the first in four months – reflects the changing landscape for savings.

‘Premium Bonds maintain their unique appeal by offering complete security backed by HM Treasury, the flexibility to withdraw easily, and the excitement of potentially winning a tax-free prize each month.’

Depending on the size of your pot and the interest rates available to you, it’s certainly an attractive option. But the question is, could you have better luck elsewhere?

What are Premium Bonds? 

For the uninitiated, Premium Bonds are run by the government-owned National Savings and Investments (NS&I). Customers are able to put away between £25 and £50,000 in a secure account, and don’t have to pay tax on any earnings.

No interest is paid on these investments, but each £1 bond is placed into a monthly draw, with prizes from £25 to £1million divvied out among the 121 billion eligible.

Although it’s possible to win with even a single bond, your odds increase the more you amass.

How many Premium Bonds do you need to win? 

In a post on X in December 2024, personal finance guru Martin Lewis, wrote: ‘Why do so many people give children Premium Bonds? Premium Bonds are only a decent bet if you’ve a big whack in, say £10,000+ and you pay tax on savings interest.

‘Most kids have/do neither. With £1,000 in over a year with typical (median average) luck you’ll win nothing.’

Some commenters felt otherwise, including one who replied: ‘Completely disagree. We’ve had returns that easily outstrip interest rates.’

‘Statistically, I’ve done a lot better with premium bonds than anything else – especially during lockdown when interest rates were practically nothing,’ said another.

However, Martin’s viewpoint does have some truth in it. In the February Premium Bonds draw, more than £57 million was handed out in total across 19,196 high-value prizes, but only 32 of these were won by savers with a holding of £1,000 or less.

The likelihood you’ll take home either of the two £1 million prizes is around 1 in 60 billion per bond; putting that into perspective, the odds of nabbing the National Lottery jackpot is roughly 45 million to 1.

Recent AJ Bell analysis revealed that two-thirds of people with cash in Premium Bonds have never won a prize, with the average holding of these unlucky savers standing at £106.79.

That said, there are outliers, and it all comes down to luck. The latest draw saw one £25,000 winner with just £25 invested, while another received £100,000 with just £700.

Are Premium Bonds worth buying?

A June article on the Money Saving Expert (MSE) website reinforced the idea that Premium Bonds may not be the best option for ‘most savers with average luck’, who don’t pay tax on savings interest.

It claimed many people would be better off with a regular savings account, as these give you a ‘guaranteed return’ in the form of interest, explaining: ‘If you get today’s top easy-access rate of 4.75%, you’d get £47.50 in interest a year for every £1,000 saved,’ the post explained.

Even considering the fact interest rates can go up and down over time, with a regular account you’ll still know what you’ll earn at any given point, while those with Premium Bonds could be saving the same £1,000 thinking they’ll get something extra each month – and perhaps be in with a chance of scoring £1million – and ultimately win nothing time and time again.

MSE adds: ‘You’re actually likely to get quite a lot less than the new and current prize rate and there’s a negligible chance of winning a million.’

Still not sure where’s best for your money? The Martin Lewis-founded site offers a handy calculator, so you can assess whether you’re likely to earn more with this method or a traditional savings account.

Who could benefit from holding Premium Bonds?

Many higher-rate taxpayers prefer Premium Bonds (at least as part of a wider portfolio) because the earnings are tax-free.

Others enjoy the ‘game’ element, or like the fact you can readily withdraw without any fees.

According to NS&I though, they may not be for you if you want a regular income, are looking for guaranteed returns, are concerned about inflation, or want to save jointly with someone else.

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