The southern part of the United States faced a decrease amount of hurricanes and tropical storms this summer, but many meteorologists believe this fall could be an extremely active storm season.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is on September 10. Most of the activity in the region takes place between mid-August and mid-October, putting us squarely in the middle of the most active portion of the year.
Historically, two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity takes place between August 20 and October 10.
What Are Experts Predicting For The Fall?
Florida state climatologist David Zierden tells ABC News that things are currently “quiet” for the next week, but that activity is expected to increase significantly over the next few months.
Experts from organizations like NOAA and scientists from Colorado State University offer similar predictions for the fall, as they believe changes in the atmosphere will produce a greater number of storms.
The Woodwell Climate Research Center’s Jennifer Francis also said that the upper atmosphere and wind shear in the region should be favorable. This allows storms to develop and strengthen by the end of the month.
In August, NOAA predicted between 13 to 18 named storms in excess of 39 miles per hour, five to nine storms above 74 miles per hour, and two to five storms with the potential for winds stronger 111 miles per hour.
That’s higher than the average number of named storms in the region, which is typically around 14. Six named storms have already developed in the Atlantic basin, with Hurricane Erin being the only one to form into a major hurricane.
Erin caused over $1 million in damage but did not make landfall in the United States. The storm developed into a Category 5 hurricane on August 16, with the same favorable conditions in the region contributing to its strength.
At the peak of its strength, Erin had sustained wind gusts of 160 miles per hour – speeds that would have been devastating if the storm reached land or coastal areas.
What Changes Will Produce More Storms?
Francis noted that the current conditions in the Atlantic basin have not allowed for hurricanes to develop at their normal and expected pace. Lower temperatures and dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert appear to be the main reasons for the drop in numbers.
As temperatures increase on the sea surface, the amount of storms and hurricanes should also increase. Zierden noted that the higher temperatures provide “ample fuel” for the creation and sustainability of these storms.
“When a disturbance does come along, it’ll have plenty of fuel,” Francis said, adding to the belief that a major storm – or multiple – could form if it develops under the proper conditions at the right time.
In 2020 and 2005, two of the busiest storm seasons in the Atlantic Basin’s history, around half of the named storms developed after the first week of September.
We’ll see how things happen in 2025, but it’s clear that scientists and meteorologists believe the potential for major storms exists in the Atlantic this year.
