Al-Araji’s visit to Tehran between regional security and the Iraqi elections | policy

Tehran – The visit of Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim Al-Araji to Tehran last Saturday gained importance on the political and security levels, during which he met with the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani.

This visit came at a time when Iran is witnessing increasing regional pressure, with the possibility of a new war with Israel, and in light of the weakness of one of its most important allies in the region, the Lebanese Hezbollah. In this context, Baghdad and Tehran are awaiting the results of the Iraqi elections, which may affect the political and security balances in the region.

Diplomatic agreement

Larijani said in a press conference that the focus of the meeting was developing economic relations between Iran and Iraq, adding that economic stability requires permanent security.

Larijani affirmed his country’s appreciation for Iraq’s positions during last June’s war between Iran and Israel, noting the follow-up to what he described as “the United States and Israel’s exploitation of Iraqi airspace,” adding that Iraq is independent and must have complete freedom to make its decisions.

For his part, Al-Araji announced that he agreed with Larijani to solve the problems through diplomatic means, stressing that his country “will not allow any party or group to threaten Iran’s security through Iraqi territory, and that Iran’s security is part of Iraq’s security.”

He added, “A new war in the region is not in anyone’s interest, and all countries must cooperate to prevent this,” noting that the region has suffered greatly from Israeli aggression, and that the time has come to put an end to it.

Al-Araji also stressed that the Iraqi government strongly opposes the use of sanctions against any country, considering that “all issues, including disputes with Iran, must be resolved through dialogue and not by force.”

Contain potential conflict

Iranian researcher on Iraqi affairs, Ali Bidbo, believes that one of the most prominent aspects of Al-Araji’s visit to Tehran is discussing Iraq’s role in any potential future conflict.

He explained in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that “Al-Araji – as a person with close relations with Iran – is expected to be able to maintain the security of Iraq, preventing any threats or attacks that may target Iran in light of the directives that confirm that Iraq will not be involved in any regional conflict.”

Bidbo added that the United States and Iraq, through multiple mediations, had previously been able to keep Iraq away from Israeli attacks and even from targeting the leaders of the coordination framework, noting that “Al-Araji’s role is based on monitoring the security situation in the airspace of Iraq, and informing the Iranian authorities of new developments, especially in light of the continuing potential threats against Iran and the region.”

The researcher pointed out, “Iraq is also seeking to purchase missile and air defense systems from South Korea, and some of these systems have already arrived, but the extent of Iraq’s ability to operate them and the Americans’ approval to use them remains in question.” He added, “However, these systems provide an important advantage, which is their ability to quickly transmit information about any potential threat to Iran.”

As for the opposition groups on Iraqi soil, Bidbo explained that they are under the control of the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Iraqi government, and the army, but he noted that the appointment of a special American representative for Iraq may increase the possibility of additional pressure on the government, which may lead to the emergence of elements outside the scope of state control.

Regarding the elections, the researcher pointed out that Al-Araji’s name is always mentioned as a potential candidate for prime minister, and that his visit less than a month before the parliamentary elections cannot be considered separate from the electoral scene, as Iran may seek through it to follow up on the security and political situation and the upcoming electoral due in Iraq, in addition to previous security issues.

On the sidelines of the meeting with Mr. Qasim Al-Araji, the Iraqi National Security Advisor Iran’s Supreme National Security Council October 18, 2025 pic.twitter.com/xsH5pjXGVz

— Ali Larijani Ali Larijani (@alilarijani_ir) October 20, 2025

Arrangement of the Shiite house

Al-Araji’s visit carries political and strategic implications, as there are observers who believe that Tehran aims, through this meeting, to strengthen its relations with influential Iraqi political forces, especially forces loyal to it or participating in the current government.

Therefore, Al-Araji’s visit can be read not only as a step to enhance bilateral cooperation, but also as advance preparation for the Iraqi election arena, as Tehran seeks to ensure the presence of political allies who support its orientations in Parliament and the next government.

In this context, Iranian political researcher Irfan Bajohandeh said that Tehran is currently seeking to strengthen consensus within the Shiite house in Iraq, while maintaining the presence of various forces such as the Sadrist movement, without focusing on supporting a specific figure to head the government.

He added in his interview with Al Jazeera Net, “Iran is focusing on managing differences within the Shiite arena, and formulating a general consensus to ensure the stability of the political scene, more than trying to impose its agendas directly.”

Bajohandeh pointed out that “Tehran now prefers to work within the framework of broader alliances and diplomatic strategies rather than direct movements or crude measures, which reflects a calmer and more stable approach to managing the Iraqi files.”

Regarding political figures, Bajohandeh explained that Iran is focusing on the ability of any figure to achieve a broad consensus within the Shiite spectrum. “If any prime minister succeeds in gathering the Shiite forces around him, he will find support within the framework of this consensus. However, if this is not achieved, the priority lies in maintaining the stability of the general situation in Baghdad, without a complete deviation towards any external agenda,” according to his opinion.

He concluded by saying, “Tehran is currently seeking to manage the Iraqi file through regional understanding and the logic of calm, with a focus on enhancing political stability, rather than engaging in radical or sudden moves as was the case in the past.”