MEXICO CITY.— Due to the problems of public insecurity and inflation, analysts surveyed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), they lowered their forecast for the national economy for this and next year. However, they seemed a little more optimistic than himself. Central Institute with 0.3% for 2025 that it adjusted from 0.6% last week in its Quarterly Inflation Report.
The consensus of 42 economic analysis and consulting groups from the national and foreign private sector revised its expectation for the current year downward from 0.50% to 0.40%. While for 2026 it reduced the estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1.40% in the last survey to 1.37%.
The probability that a reduction in the level of seasonally adjusted real GDP will be observed in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the last section of the year that is about to end grew from 30.65% to 42.22%. The above is due to the fact that governance problems continue to be the main obstacle to GDP, where public insecurity is a burden when placed in first place followed by the lack of rule of law.
93% of those surveyed assured that the economy is no better than a year ago; 20% believe that the business climate will worsen in the next six months and 56% warned that it is a bad time to make investments. Concern also continues over the issue of inflation due to the increase in the prices of inputs, raw materials and salary costs at a time when the increase in the minimum wage by 2026.
Hence, the consensus of specialists raised the forecast for underlying inflation, which does not include energy or fresh food prices or the most volatile ones. By the end of this year they see an underlying rising to 4.25% from 4.22% in the last survey; For 2026 they increased it from 3.80% to 3.90%.
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