And now, Morocco will go after Ceuta and Melilla

However, the real headline lies in the abstentions of three crucial members: China, Pakistan and the Russian Federation. Algeria, a firm ally of the Polisario Front, chose not to participate in the vote.

Although the extension of MINURSO is a recurring exercise, the approved text, promoted by the United States, has introduced new terminology. For the first time, it is explicitly accepted that the “autonomy plan” proposed by Morocco in 2007 is considered the “most reliable solution” to resolve the conflict.

This declaration represents an unprecedented boost to the Moroccan position, moving the debate away from the self-determination referendum (the original mandate of MINURSO). and focusing it on a political negotiation with autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty as a starting point.

The Moroccan autonomy plan, outlined in broad strokes, proposes that Western Sahara become an autonomous region within the Kingdom of Morocco, with broad powers in matters of economy, local development, infrastructure, culture and environment. A kind of decaffeinated autonomous community.

Nevertheless, Rabat would maintain exclusive prerogatives over defense, foreign relations and general finances.

From the Moroccan perspective, this honors the principle of self-determination through “genuine autonomy” that allows the population to manage their affairs, while preserving the territorial integrity of the kingdom, a historical constant in the foreign and domestic policy of the Alawite dynasty.

The real coup, however, lies in the list of abstentions.

Get China and Russia, two veto-wielding powers and Algeria’s trading partners, to abstain in a resolution clearly favorable to the American and Moroccan position It is a monumental diplomatic achievement for Morocco.

Rabat, despite being an ally of Washington and having provided T-72B tanks to Ukraine (a high-risk gesture that initially angered Moscow), has been able to maneuver on the complex geopolitical board.

This double abstention by Beijing and Moscow, added to that of Pakistan, suggests a network of concessions and discrete bilateral agreements in areas such as trade, investments or security cooperation.

Mere abstention, even if it is not a “yes”, avoids the veto and ensures that the pro-Rabat text goes ahead.

This degree of international consensus (by managing to neutralize the opposition of two permanent members of the Council) tangibly brings Morocco closer to its great strategic objective: the full annexation of Western Sahara in the eyes of the international community.

Resolution 2797/2025, by elevating the autonomy plan to the category of “most viable solution”, places the referendum option at a disadvantage and cements a roadmap focused on the implementation of the Moroccan proposal.

“Mohamed VI has been in charge of sealing the victory in the Sahara so that his successor, the future Hassan III, can assume the task of initiating the annexation of Ceuta and Melilla”

For Rabat, it is about archiving the “Sahara” file and binding its sovereignty in an incontestable manner, and this resolution is another of the rapid steps taken in the last five years.

This moment contrasts with the situation of isolation that Morocco experienced in the 70s and 80s.

After the Green March of 1975 and the de facto annexation, The Moroccan position had hardly any international recognitionforcing the kingdom to adopt an empty chair policy in key forums such as the Organization of African Unity (OAU), which had recognized the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

The turn of the century and aggressive but patient diplomacy have completely reversed this dynamic.

The last and most delicate collateral effect of this diplomatic victory is projected on Spain. The Government of Pedro Sanchez has already adopted this same position of support for the Moroccan autonomy plan in 2022, breaking with traditional Spanish neutrality, although Zapatero He had already outlined a similar position during his presidency.

The risk, as various Moroccan personalities have warned, including the former prime minister Saadeddine Al Othmaniis that the day the international community definitively archives the case of Western Sahara, Morocco will reopen its territorial claim over Ceuta and Melilla with more force and urgency.

Specialized authors such as Javier Otazu y Sonia Moreno They agree when interpreting this scenario as a dynastic project.

The current monarch, Mohamed VIwould be in charge of sealing the victory in the Sahara, so that his successor, the future Hasán IIIassume the task of initiating the annexation of the Spanish autonomous cities. An obviously absurd and impossible objective that, however, especially if Spain continues to renounce deterrence, will create the mirage that there is a real possibility against our cities.

Something that will lead us to new crises of increasing severity.

Perhaps the time is coming to systematically connect Spanish policy towards Western Sahara with Moroccan policy towards Ceuta and Melilla. Without its recognition there will be no Spanish recognition. Without a favorable change in favor of the state in which of our cities, there will not be one for Western Sahara either.

Any economic, military or gray zone aggression on our cities will be responded to with a proportional or escalatory response with Western Sahara. Perhaps the time has come to add the policy of the Sahara cushion to the interest cushion to cushion the cyclical crises with Rabat..

Observers indicate that diplomatic and logistical preparations around the Spanish squares are already underway. The green light for the Moroccan autonomy plan is not only an end in itself, but the penultimate step of a strategy of great geopolitical significance, where the ambition to consolidate a Greater Morocco in the Maghreb is reaffirmed in the Security Council.

And that leaves Spain facing the evidence that peace in the Sahara could mean increasing pressure on our compatriots.

*** Yago Rodríguez is a military and geopolitical analyst, and director of The Political Room.