Are the United States and Venezuela on the verge of war? A military expert answers | news

Military and strategic expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna said that talk of an imminent war between the United States and Venezuela is inaccurate in light of the existing balance of power, indicating that the American military deployment in the Caribbean region does not rise to the level of preparation for large-scale military action.

Hanna explained that this deployment is part of an ancient American policy whose roots go back to what is known as the “Monroe Doctrine” in 1823, which established the concept of American hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, pointing out that the current mobilization, despite its size, does not represent more than 10% of the American naval force.

He believes that this deployment aims primarily to put pressure on Venezuela by creating a climate of constant threat, hoping to destabilize the relationship between the regime and the army or push President Nicolas Maduro to negotiate with Washington.

He stressed that Washington seeks from this step to achieve political and economic gains, foremost of which is controlling part of Venezuela’s massive oil reserves, which are considered the largest in the world.

Hanna’s statements coincide with US President Donald Trump’s assertion that he is not considering launching strikes inside Venezuela, even though an American official told Al Jazeera that the Joint Chiefs of Staff presented the president with options regarding targets for drug smuggling inside Venezuelan territory.

Limited strikes

The official added that the US administration is studying the possibility of directing limited strikes against drug smuggling sites, and that the aircraft carrier “Ford” will arrive in the Caribbean within days to enhance military deployment there.

Brigadier General Hanna points out that allowing the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to work secretly inside Venezuela suggests the existence of an advanced preparation stage that combines external pressure and internal secret work, which reflects a dual strategy aimed at exhausting the regime from within.

He adds that Washington is using its tools in the region within what resembles a “complete encirclement” of Venezuela, extending from Cuba to Puerto Rico through Trinidad and Panama, as part of an attempt to isolate it politically and economically.

In parallel with these developments, the Washington Post quoted American documents as saying that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asked his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to help strengthen his country’s air defenses, including restoring Russian Sukhoi planes that Caracas had purchased earlier.

The newspaper also revealed that Maduro contacted both China and Iran requesting military support and defense equipment, in an attempt to fortify his country against any possible attack or increasing American pressure.

Alliance network

Hanna believes that these Venezuelan moves come within a natural context of trying to balance the American threat, stressing that Maduro seeks to create a network of alliances that deter any potential American military adventure in the region.

On the other hand, Adam Smith, the senior Democrat on the Armed Services Committee in the US House of Representatives, believes that his country may eventually launch ground attacks inside Venezuela after a series of air strikes targeting drug gangs, calling for more transparency regarding the declared military goals.

Hanna believes that such statements may fall within the framework of psychological warfare aimed at keeping the Venezuelan regime under pressure, noting that any American ground intervention will be politically and militarily costly, and may bring to mind Washington’s failed experiences in Latin America over the past decades.

The military expert concludes that what is happening in the Caribbean is nothing but a new chapter of the “short stick” policy, as Washington relies on military signals and intelligence pressures to impose new political realities without sliding into a comprehensive war, because war – according to his assessment – is not a realistic option at the present time.

He points out that President Trump, who seeks to show firmness in foreign policy issues, is using the Venezuelan file to enhance his internal image, relying on rhetoric of force without bearing the cost of direct confrontation.

Brigadier General Elias Hanna confirms that the current scene reflects a delicate balance between displays of force and mutual deterrence, as Washington is trying to impose its will through combined pressure, while Caracas seeks to consolidate its steadfastness in alliance with international powers such as Russia and China, in a scene that brings back the atmosphere of the Cold War to the coasts of the Caribbean.