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Are we about to revisit Brexit, again?

Boris Johnson Tours Dorset In The Vote Leave Battle Bus
Just when we thought we had heard the last of it… (Picture: Getty)

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Iron your mini Union Jack and get practicing your robot dance moves to Abba – we’re heading back to the good old days of Brexit!

It turns out three and a half years wasn’t enough time to spend debating the details of the UK’s relationship with the European Union.

These constitutional questions have been in hibernation for a while since we officially left the bloc in January 2020, but in recent weeks we’ve seen them starting to stir once again.

All that culminated in a House of Commons vote this week, in which MPs backed joining a customs union with the EU.

Yeah, that genuinely happened on Tuesday afternoon. But we’ll revisit the vote in a bit, because context is important.

The current chat about potentially rejoining the customs union appears to have whipped up by a line in a post-Budget article in the Observer, which said Sir Keir Starmer’s economic adviser Minouche Shafik had suggested the idea as an effective way to generate growth.

(As a quick reminder for those who have successfully suppressed the Brexit years: joining the EU Customs Union would mean all barriers to trade are removed, while other restrictions like movement would remain.)

Ed Davey has been pushing the government over trade with the EU in recent weeks. (Picture: Parliament TV)

Adding fuel to the fire, Deputy PM David Lammy heavily implied he backed a customs union in an interview with the News Agents podcast last week.

He said it was ‘self-evident’ that countries like Turkiye benefitted economically from having that deal with the EU, but added it was ‘not currently our policy’. You’ll note the word ‘currently’ standing out like a scoop of ice cream on your Christmas dinner.

All this gave the pro-EU Liberal Democrats an idea – they could force a vote in Parliament, giving Labour MPs who like the idea of a customs union the chance to put their view on record.

What is a customs union and why do the Lib Dems want us to join one with the EU?

Simply put, it’s an agreement between two or more countries to remove trade barriers and lower or eliminate tariffs.

Usually these countries will also have a common tariff on goods and services that enter from outside the customs union.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey believes that entering a customs union with the EU would improve the British economy: ‘The prime minister must now listen to Parliament and the public, drop his self-imposed red lines and finally go for proper growth through an ambitious trade deal with the EU.’

However, Sir Keir Starmer has repeatedly ruled this out, pointing to recent deals with India and the USA that he says would be affected by joining the EU Customs Union.

That brings us back to yesterday. The vote was on a ‘ten-minute rule’ bill presented by Lib Dem MP Al Pinkerton – those kinds of bills are typically symbolic, as they rarely return to the Commons for a second reading even if they’re passed.

But those dastardly Lib Dems got what they wanted. A total of 13 Labour MPs joined those voting ‘aye’, and the bill narrowly passed after the deputy speaker broke a tie.

(Incidentally, Sir Ed Davey’s party has form for this kind of thing. Almost exactly a year ago, they unexpectedly won another ten-minute rule vote on changing the UK voting system.)

Caption: ?Historic victory? for the Lib Dems as Parliament votes in favour of UK-EU customs union The Liberal Democrats have won a historic vote in Parliament in favour of a UK-EU customs union. The Ten Minute Rule Bill, brought forward by Liberal Democrat Europe Spokesperson Al Pinkerton MP, passed by a majority of 1 vote. The vote breakdown was 100 in favour, 100 against ? with the Deputy Speaker casting the deciding vote in favour. 13 Labour backbenchers voted with the Liberal Democrats in favour of negotiating a customs union with the EU. Ed Davey said the vote sets a crucial Parliamentary precedent for movement on a deeper trading relationship with Europe. Copyright: PARLIAMENT TV
Lib Dem MPs were shocked when the vote was passed (Picture: Parliament TV)

So after all that, you might be asking: are we rejoining the customs union?

I can almost guarantee we won’t rejoin the customs union via Al Pinkerton’s bill.

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And it’s unlikely to happen any time soon, since the 2024 Labour manifesto promises ‘no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement’.

But further into the future? Who knows.

A widely shared YouGov poll from this week suggests around 63% of Brits would back rejoining the EU in a new referendum, after taking into account new voters and those who have died since 2016.

So for those of you nostalgic for the interminable politics of the late 2010s, fear not – more Brexit might just be on the horizon.

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