Portugal is currently experiencing a paradox: it needs legal immigration, qualified and unskilled, to sustain economic growth and balance population aging, but it adopts policies that make it difficult for foreigners to enter, regularize and integrate. This option, justified by internal political pressures and European trends, has economic, social and diplomatic costs.
In the economy the problem is evident. Portugal is one of the oldest countries in Europe where almost 24% of the population is over 65 years old and the birth rate remains below 1.4 children per woman. Legal immigration has been essential to offset this imbalance and contribute to public accounts, with a positive annual fiscal balance of over €600 million. But regularization mechanisms, administrative delays and uncertainty surrounding AIMA impede the arrival of workers in sectors where thousands of people are missing and, without this workforce, companies produce less, growth slows down and the pension system comes under greater pressure. Closing the borders to regular immigration is closing the door to prosperity.
Portugal still has a lot to lose in terms of international reputation. The country has built a solid image as an open, tolerant and humanist nation that attracts wealth-creating and job-generating investment. However, the message about institutional distrust of outsiders and administrative delays threaten to erode this image, making us less competitive in the search for good investments.
The price of closing ourselves off also affects our presence in the world, as the tightening of rules has caused friction and distrust among Portuguese-speaking countries, compromising strategic partnerships based on a common language. Closing doors to citizens of these countries undermines decades of political and cultural ties, makes mobility agreements unfeasible and reinforces competing narratives. And there is also a silent but real effect on the millions of Portuguese in the diaspora, who may face reciprocity measures. A restrictive migration policy can become the cause that limits opportunities and rights of Portuguese citizens around the world.
The need for immigration has generated a problem of public perception and although data shows that immigrants contribute positively to the economy and pay more taxes than the benefits they receive, the discourse that feeds a distorted perception, transforming isolated cases into narratives of threat and exploiting social discontent, fueling misinformation and discourses of fear has been gaining space in our collective discourse. The result is a debate dominated by emotion and mistrust rather than evidence and reason. It is, therefore, essential to provide concrete answers to the concerns of those who fear immigration, building a new social relationship based on facts, fair integration and mutual respect.
Furthermore, the false perception causes setbacks in integration policies which, in turn, threaten social cohesion. Today, more than 400 thousand applications for residence permits are pending and the prolonged irregularity generates uncertainty, overload of services and tensions in communities, especially in metropolitan areas. Fighting illegal immigration is legitimate, but doing so at the expense of necessary immigration is a mistake. The solution is to integrate well and protect everyone. Who arrives legally and who lives here.
Anyone who argues that Portugal should close itself off has an obligation to be honest and admit that the price to pay will be collective impoverishment. If we want to continue to grow, defend the interests of our diaspora and be respected in the world, we must choose trust and not fear. The answer lies in combining fact-based public policies with effective administrative responses in the management and integration of immigration.
Guest Professor UCP/UNL/UÉ
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