Citi still expects a 25 basis point cut

The consensus of specialists consulted by Citi in your Expectations Survey reviewed that they are still waiting for a 25 basis point cut at the next meeting in November.

Most participants expect that the next move in the monetary policy rate to be in November 2025and everyone waits for a 25 basis point cut as the next move.

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Of 37 participants, 36 expect a cut in November 2025, while one expects it in December 2025.

The median of the forecasts for the monetary policy rate at the end of 2025 remains at 7%as in the previous survey. Only five participants expect it at 7.25%.

Meanwhile, by the end of 2026, the median expectations for the monetary policy rate remained at 6.50% since the previous fortnight, with estimates ranging from 6% to 7%.

Stable weight expectations

The consensus continues to project the exchange rate at 19 and 19.50 for the end of 2025 and the end of 2026respectively, as in the previous survey.

For the first half of October, the consensus projects a general and underlying inflation of 0.36% and 0.20%respectively.

For the full month of October, analysts expect a general inflation of 0.45% or 3.66%, lower than the September rate of 3.76% and the same as fifteen days ago.

The Core inflation is now estimated at 0.28% in Octobero 4.28%, equal to the previous month’s figure of 4.28% and higher than the previous survey of 0.26%.

The median expectations of Core inflation increased by the end of 2026. The median projection of iGeneral inflation by the end of 2025 decreased to 3.90% from 3.96% in the previous survey, while for the underlying component it remained at 4.20%.

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By the end of 2026, the median general expectation is at 3.80%while the median of the core inflation estimate increased to 3.80% from 3.78%, both compared to the previous survey.

Inflation rate unchanged

The median expectation for average annual inflation rate in 2027–2031 remained unchanged compared to the previous survey at 3.70%.

Meanwhile, the median of the GDP growth expectations remained stable. The median of the Growth estimate for 2025 GDP remained at 0.5%with estimates ranging from -0.1% to 0.8%. For 2026, it remained at 1.3% compared to the previous survey.