A new cyclonic potential is monitored in the Pacific Ocean by the National Meteorological Service (SMN), official climate source of the Government of Mexico.
This morning of Monday, October 20, the National Water Commission (Conagua) reported that it is monitoring an area with cyclonic potential:
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Low pressure area south of Chiapas, maintains a 10% probability of cyclonic development in 48 hours and 50% in 7 days. It is located 465 kilometers south of Barra de Tonalá, Chiapas, and is moving west at a speed between 16 and 24 km/h.
If its evolution continues, this phenomenon would give shape to the storm “Sonia”.
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A low pressure channel will prevail over the southeast of the Mexican Republic, in interaction with a high trough, which will extend over the Yucatan Peninsula and with the cloud detachments of the monsoon trough, close to the coasts of the Mexican South Pacific, in addition to divergence, it will maintain the probability of showers and heavy to very heavy rains in the mentioned regions.
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A new cold front in interaction with the subtropical jet stream will approach the northern border of Mexico, where it will generate strong gusts of wind of 40 to 60 km/h in that region. For its part, a trough at medium and high levels of the atmosphere will travel through the northwest of the country, causing winds with gusts of up to 50 km/h in said region, as well as a drop in temperatures in Baja California.
Another low pressure channel over the interior of the national territory in combination with the entry of humidity from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, will generate scattered rains and showers with possible electric shocks in northern, western and central states of the country.
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An anticyclonic circulation at mid-levels of the atmosphere over the North Table will cause a low probability of rain in said region, in addition to the Central Table and the northeast of the country.
The low pressure area with a probability of cyclonic development will move westward, over the Pacific Ocean, gradually moving away from the Mexican coast..
Finally, Starting Thursday, a new tropical wave will enter the south of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, reinforcing the probability of rain in said peninsula.
With information from the National Meteorological Service
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