The tropical cyclone season has not yet ended and it is possible that in a few days another phenomenon will form in the Mexican Pacificaccording to the National Meteorological Service (SMN), official climate source of the Government of Mexico.
This morning of Wednesday October 22the National Water Commission (Conagua) reported that it is monitoring an area with cyclonic potential:
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Low pressure area south of the coast of Colima, maintains a 30% probability of cyclonic development in 48 hours and 70% in 7 days.. It is located approximately 780 kilometers south of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, and is moving west at a speed between 16 and 24 km/h.
It is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone at the end of this week.
If its evolution continues, this phenomenon would give shape to the storm “Sonia“.
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So far, 17 tropical cyclones have formed in the Pacific basinof which, ten have reached the category of hurricanes. The estimate for this season is up to 20 similar phenomena.
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A low pressure channel will prevail over the southeast of the Mexican Republic, in interaction with the cloud detachments of the monsoon trough, close to the coasts of the Mexican southern Pacific, in addition to divergence, it will maintain the probability of showers and heavy to very heavy rains in said region and the Yucatan Peninsula.
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A trough at medium and high levels of the atmosphere and the subtropical jet stream will travel through the northwest, north and northeast of the country, interacting with the approach of a new cold front to the northern border of Mexico, will generate strong gusts of wind, rain and showers with electrical shocks in the mentioned regions.
Another low pressure channel over the interior of the national territory in combination with the entry of humidity from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, will generate scattered rains and showers with possible electric shocks in northern, central and western states of the country.
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The tropical wave (no. 39) will move south of the coasts of the South Pacific and Central Mexico, reinforcing the probability of rain in the southeast, south and west of the national territory.
Finally, an anticyclonic circulation at mid-levels of the atmosphere will move towards the Gulf of Mexico, a condition that will increase the probability of rain in states of the northeast, west and center of the country.
With information from the National Meteorological Service
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