NEW YORK / LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a period of uncertainty as the Coinbase Premium Index slides into negative territory for the first time in weeks. Despite this weakness, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows parallels to a previous low, suggesting possible stabilization.
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The Bitcoin market is under pressure after the price fell to $103,500 on Friday. This development has led to a noticeable change in sentiment in the on-chain market. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, has turned negative on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin tried to find support around $110,000, supported by consistent spot demand from US investors. The Coinbase premium even rose to 0.18, its highest level since March 2024. But when the price failed to sustain above $110,000 on Thursday, short-term confidence faded.
Adding to this pressure, Bitcoin sales volume surged to over $4 billion, indicating a wave of market sell orders. This move coincided with BTC rejection near the short-term holder realized price at $112,370, a key level that is now acting as resistance. Historically, this level marked the average cost of new buyers, meaning sustained rejection below could accelerate a short-term capitulation towards $100,000.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s current price action closely resembles the bottom structure from March to April, when sharp intraday wickets eliminated the liquidity built up over 30 days before a gradual recovery began. This pattern suggests that BTC could retest the $100,000 area without breaking the broader bullish structure unless it falls decisively below this level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also fallen to its lowest level, corresponding to the April low after which BTC started recovering on the charts. An important technical signal to watch is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which BTC has held for almost six months. In the previous phase of the cycle, it held this trend from October 2024 to March 2024 before briefly losing it during the consolidation. This time, the trendline has held from April to October 2025, with the price possibly losing the trendline in the coming days.
If BTC follows its previous fractal, the market could enter a consolidation phase that lasts several weeks. In the first quarter, the recovery period lasted almost 45 to 55 days and only really bottomed out at the end of April. Applying the same timeline suggests that a gradual recovery may not occur until late November or early December.
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