SAN FRANCISCO / LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – Coinbase Institutional is optimistic about the crypto market at the end of 2025. Despite recent market fluctuations, the company sees positive signals for Bitcoin and Ethereum, supported by a stable liquidity situation and progress in on-chain usage.
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Coinbase Institutional is optimistic about the development of Bitcoin and Ethereum in its fourth quarter 2025 report. Despite recent market fluctuations caused by high leverage and thin order books, the company remains cautiously optimistic. The stabilization of prices over the weekend after the collapse on October 10th suggests some recovery, although macroeconomic uncertainties remain.
A key aspect of Coinbase’s forecast is liquidity, which is supported by the Global M2 Money Supply Index. This index has historically influenced Bitcoin and is currently showing a supportive stance. However, the report warns of possible tightening of conditions later in the quarter. Coinbase also expects two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could shift capital from money market funds back into riskier investments.
The evolution of stablecoin supply and record monthly transaction volumes show that more and more payments and transfers are taking place on the blockchain. This is supported by the increasing infrastructure for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in the US, increasing access for traditional investors and strengthening market depth. According to Coinbase, these developments are characterized less by headlines and more by creating stable structures that maintain usage and liquidity even in volatile times.
Coinbase favors Bitcoin because of its role as “digital gold” at a time of ongoing doubts about fiscal and monetary discipline. Ethereum is also seen as constructive as advances in scaling have shifted more activity to Layer 2 networks and fees have fallen. A survey of investors shows that the majority of institutions are bullish on Bitcoin over the next three to six months, although many see the macroeconomic environment as the biggest risk.
Coinbase’s report also touches on digital asset management companies, which are described as significant and relatively stable buyers of Bitcoin and Ethereum. These companies now hold a significant share of circulating supply and remain an important source of demand. Still, there are unanswered questions about the group’s long-term business models, especially after recent weakness in the group’s stock market.
Although Coinbase does not ignore the short-term risks, the overall valuation remains positive. Lack of US data due to the government shutdown, the possibility of a drop in liquidity in November and uncertainties among digital asset management companies are reasons to keep scale and time horizons disciplined. Nonetheless, liquidity conditions, political progress and increasing on-chain usage remain supportive heading into year-end, with Bitcoin best positioned to benefit from these supports.
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