Damaged: 38% of those affected by rains suffer from poverty

Last year, 38.1% of the population of Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla, San Luis Potosí and Querétaro, the states most affected by the recent rains, were in poverty. This figure is equivalent to 8.9 million people, 3.5 million less than in 2020, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

However, Experts warn that recent floods could reverse the progress in poverty of recent years and, in some cases, even cause an increase in extreme poverty. “In the last five years, some inhabitants of the affected municipalities could have overcome their state of poverty or extreme poverty, but unfortunately, due to the effects of the heavy rains, they could have regressed to that status,” explained José Nabor Cruz, former executive secretary of Coneval.

Approximately 3 million people live in the 91 municipalities most affected by the rains in these five entities. Of them, 2 million, that is, 67%, were in poverty in 2020, according to the last municipal measurement carried out by the extinct Coneval. By municipality, the proportion of vulnerable population could be even higher.

Historical data show that, in 2020, 1.6 million inhabitants of these localities lacked access to basic housing services; 851 thousand had difficulties obtaining nutritious food; 540 thousand faced quality or space problems in their homes; and 539 thousand lacked health services. These problems have been exacerbated by recent rains and floods.

The most affected municipalities have alarming poverty rates. In Veracruz, Coyutla and Espinal they had 84% and 78% poverty, respectively; in Hidalgo, Tianguistengo and Huehuetla they reached 79% and 76%; in Puebla, Tlacuilotepec and Pahuatlán they reported 84% and 83%; and in San Luis Potosí, Tampacán and San Vicente Tancuayalab registered 77%. In Querétaro, Pinal de Amoles reached 72%, while San Joaquín was at 43 percent.

There are even municipalities where more than 90% of the population was poor before the rains. In Puebla, Eloxochitlán had 96% poverty, Chiconcuautla 93%, and Tlaola and Hutzilan 92% each. In Veracruz, Texcatepec it reached 93%, Zontecomatlán and Ilamatlán 92%, and in San Luis Potosí, Aquismón 91 percent.

According to Nabor Cruz, Recovery depends on four factors: the speed to reactivate the local economy, the recovery of communication routes, the housing situation and access to adequate food.. “If road access and educational, health and food services are restored soon, the population will be able to recover more quickly,” he indicated.

Banamex specialists estimate that the economic impact at the national level will be marginal, although locally vulnerable communities face serious challenges. Poza Rica, Veracruz, registers logistical difficulties; the northern mountains of Puebla temporarily lose access to specialty coffee markets; and in Hidalgo, subsistence agriculture and informal employment are affected. Querétaro and San Luis Potosí experience minor interruptions in tourism and local crops.

The federal government estimates an expense of up to 16 billion pesos for reconstruction, which could partially compensate for the losses, similar to what happened after the hurricane. Otis in 2023 in Guerrero.

Faced with this panorama, inter-institutional coordination and rapid attention to infrastructure, housing, basic services and food are crucial to avoid a further setback in the poverty progress achieved in the last five years.

CT