England’s first match in this year’s autumn internationals gives them the opportunity to exorcise the demons and haunting memories still lingering from a run of poor performances this time last year.
An horrific run of Tests at Twickenham started with a 24-22 defeat to New Zealand when George Ford hit the post from a penalty, then directed a drop goal wide after Steve Borthwick’s side threw away the lead in the closing stages.
A week later they crumbled once again in the final exchanges when losing 42-37 to Australia in a ten-try thriller with Max Jorgensen running in the latest of tries after Mario Itoje appeared to have cemented victory with a 78th minute effort which was converted by Marcus Smith.
It got worse as further England errors led to a 29-20 defeat to South Africa and it took a 59-14 victory against Japan to ease the pressure building on head coach Borthwick as a five-game losing streak was snapped.
England fared well in the Six Nations at the start of this year, finishing runners-up to France, and then won their summer series in Argentina 2-0 before demolishing the United States 40-5 in Washington DC.
It adds up to them having now won their last seven outings heading into Saturday’s encounter with a Wallabies side still smarting from their 2-1 defeat to the British and Irish Lions just five short months ago.
Australia’s return to action saw then narrowly beat Japan 19-15 in Tokyo on Saturday and they will be without four key players for the Twickenham tussle due to their international window not opening until next week, meaning Prem clubs do not have to release any Wallabies on their books.
England will be at full strength because of the ‘professional agreement’ struck between the clubs and the RFU giving Ford the chance for atonement he won’t squander while a reinvigorated defensive system continues to eradicate blunders.
Rugby union is continually developing with scrums taking longer, the ball being put into the second row, rucks no longer commonplace and defensive assaults being made ‘off the edge’ like blitzes from NFL linebackers.
The sport is enthusiastically following the lead of Major League Baseball, cricket and football clubs like Brighton and Brentford in using data to analyse key areas where small but vital edges can be exploited and turned into competitive success and transfer joy.
A compelling new book by data analyst Sam Larner called Attacking The Space examines the type of processes which will go into players like regular wing Tommy Freeman and dynamic newcomer Noah Caluori continuing to develop after their explosive starts to the season for Northampton and Saracens respectively.
England can continue their own improvement by winning all four Tests and they are 8/11 with Sky Bet to lead HT/FT against Australia and evens with William Hill to open their account by beating them by double digits.
Autumn Tests: Ireland too strong for All Blacks
New Zealand kick-off their autumn adventure with a Test against Ireland at Soldier Field, home of the NFL’s Chicago Bears where Andy Farrell’s squad will be boosted by the return of the powerful No.8 Caelan Doris.
It gives them the edge over the All Blacks, who are in a state of flux having slipped behind South Africa in the world rankings, and the Irish can be backed at 2/1 with William Hill with a 6.5-point start making sense as a saver at 10/11 with the same firm.
Scotland will annihilate the United States at Murrayfield but the Eagles can be backed with a 38-point start at 7/5 with BoyleSports.
American Football
Baltimore were our ante-post picks to win the Super Bowl before the first pass was thrown in this year’s NFL season but the Ravens have fallen down the pecking order and have a 2-5 record following a series of crushing injuries to star players.
Elite quarterback Lamar Jackson, however, is now ready to return from a week four hamstring injury in the 37-20 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs and he has the perfect opportunity to produce a spectacular show at the Miami Dolphins, who have won just two of eight games.
Baltimore are 10/11 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power and bet365 to win by more than a touchdown while Jackson is 9/5 with the latter firm to run into the end zone at any stage.
