Europe fears that the meeting between Putin and Witkoff will launch another pressure campaign on Zelensky to give up territories

Kallas knows well what she is talking about: during the first two years of the war, she was one of the most faithful spokespersons for the Government of Volodímir Zelenski and her defense of international legality in her capacity as Prime Minister of Estonia.

And, if anyone can allow themselves to be pessimistic regarding Russia’s position in this conflict and what US support for its requests would mean, it is precisely the Baltic countries, the weakest link in the European Union and NATO due to their status as bordering Russia and former members of the USSR. To give an example, from Narva, one of the most important cities in the country, to Saint Petersburg, there are barely 135 kilometers.

Kallas regretted that the Trump Administration and, specifically, its special envoy, is so clearly taking sides with the Kremlin’s theses, since it represents an attack on the charter of the United Nations and seems to want to impose the law of the strongest in diplomatic relations.

“If this works… we will see that whoever has the power gets what they want, and that is not good for most countries in the world,” he said at a press conference.

The Macron-Zelensky meeting in Paris

Kallas’s pessimism, a pessimism forged by decades fighting against Russian propaganda and its imperialist threats, contrasts with the optimism of Emmanuel Macronthe French president. Macron, highly contested in his country, but respected abroad, has never given up on enforcing French positions on the geopolitical board at a time when it seems that everything happens through the United States, Russia, China and, sometimes, the monarchies of the Middle East.

Macron, who tried to stop the war until the last moment with several meetings and conversations with Putin in the previous weeks, and is the main promoter of the so-called Coalition of the Willing in Support of Ukraine, met this Monday with Zelensky to once again show his support.

In a display of magical thinking, the French president affirmed that he hopes to transfer to the United States the agreements reached with Ukraine and repeated that his troops are ready to act as a security guarantee for any ceasefire with Russia.

Although the relationship between Macron and Trump has always been excellent and, at the time, the same could have been said about his relationship with Putin, the truth is that these words only reflect an unrealistic view of the situation. Neither Russia will ever accept NATO troops in the neighboring country… nor will the White House contradict the Kremlin in such an important aspect.

What Trump is looking for is another peace than signing up at any price and getting back to doing business as soon as possible. The same thing, exactly, that Witkoff is looking for.

The other fight for Donbas

The improvised special envoy—remember that, initially, the designated one was the retired general Keith Kelloggbut Moscow vetoed it for not being sufficiently submissive—had a telephone conversation with Zelensky within the framework of the negotiations that a Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov is keeping with Marco Rubio and Witkoff himself in Miami. The goal is to reach an agreement that can then be transferred to Putin in Moscow.

The content of the conversation, as well as the negotiations, has not emerged, although Rubio has been very optimistic, as is usually the case.

It has been leaked, however, that the objective would be to establish a line of contact between Russia and Ukraine that could be used to establish the ceasefire there. That is the position that Trump has been defending for some time and, in fact, after his meeting with Putin in Alaska, he already tried to draw lines with Zelensky and his European allies in the White House. It didn’t help much.

And it didn’t help, basically, because Putin has his own sense of what territorial justice is and that includes, at a minimum, the Donbas, both the conquered part and the part that has yet to be conquered and that could take years to get hold of.

Although the Kremlin—and sometimes Washington—insists that “sooner or later, Ukraine is going to lose those territories,” the truth is that Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are prepared for a very long fight that Russia, of course, cannot take for granted.

Zelensky’s internal crisis

It is to be hoped that Putin will convey these conditions again to Witkoff and that Witkoff will find them fantastic. What is not clear is that even that is not enough for Moscow.

It must be remembered that the so-called Trump Plan, which, in reality, was the translation of a Russian plan transferred by Kirill Dmitriev Witkoff himself did not particularly catch the Russian president’s attention either. Although it already included the transfer of the entire Donbas to Russia, Putin simply thought it was “a good starting point.” Without further ado.

Anything other than a scenario similar to the one Kallas described in his press conference will be a real surprise.

Putin will arrive with a maximum proposal, Witkoff will soften it minimally, Putin will tell him that, well, it can be, and Witkoff will run enthusiastically to tell Trump now. JD Vance that peace is just one step away. Next, Trump will call Zelensky or threaten him on social media, setting an ultimatum that neither Europe nor Ukraine will accept. And so on.

Currently, and taking into account the fragility of the Zelensky Government after the corruption cases that have claimed its number two, Andriy YermakPutin is unlikely to want to reach any peace agreement.

Their great option is the breakdown of the kyiv Government and the emergence of some pro-Russian movement that takes power or influences it enough to accept a de facto dependence on Moscow, in the style of Alexandr Lukashenkoand thus avoid having to send more men to die at the front.