Tensions in the Middle East have reached a boiling point after a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran failed today.
The truce was broken when both sides fired missiles at each other, prompting Donald Trump to have a meltdown on live television after the deal he brokered collapsed.
The US President ranted: ‘They don’t know what the f*** they’re doing.
‘We have to have Israel calm down because they went on a mission this morning.’
At least 974 people in Iran have been killed, and 3,458 others wounded. In Israel, at least 28 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war.
On Monday, Iran launched a limited missile attack on al-Udeid Air Base, a large US military base in Qatar, in retaliation for the American attack on its key nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.
Now, the world is watching amid fears of a wider conflict igniting across the region.
Metro has spoken to experts about what’s next for the Middle East: what’s at stake, how the conflict could pan out and if World War 3 is a possibility.
What could happen next?
Talk of World War 3 is nothing new. For years, tense geopolitical moments have stoked fears that we are on the brink of a catastrophic conflict.
Guney Yildiz, visiting fellow at the London School of Economics’ European Institute, told Metro that previous world wars have broken out at unexpected moments during periods of heightened tension.
He said: ‘There’s been talk of this “World War Three” for over a decade now. I think when people are aware of this risk, it almost reduces the risk of accidents and miscalculations.
‘Especially when everyone has so much at risk. It’s unlikely that there will be a sort of ‘Franz Ferdinand’ moment, like there was in World War One.’
Jason Pack, host of The Disorder Podcast and Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, pointed out that no Middle Eastern conflict has escalated into a world war. And there have been many.
‘Two world wars have started in Europe,’ he said.
‘Arab-Israeli wars historically end when superpowers bring them to an end. Both the Suez War and the 1967 War were brought to an end by America.’
Mr Pack described the current situation in the Middle East as this: ‘If you and I are opponents for 46 years and all we want to do is destroy each other, and then we agree to a ceasefire without undoing the underlying cause, it’s like you and your wife saying that you want to get a divorce, and then the mediator says: ‘Great, just put this aside for a week.’
‘You might be able to put it aside for a week, but if you haven’t solved the underlying issue. There is an opportunity now for a peace negotiation, but we haven’t seen that materialise.’
However, not everyone shares this view. Dr Bamo Nouri, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of West London, told Metro the world is ‘nowhere near’ the end of this confrontation.
‘We are, at best, in a pause, shaped by calculation, not capitulation,’ he said.
‘To view Iran’s recent actions as a final move or a sign of weakness fundamentally misunderstands how this regime operates. Iran’s leadership sees its survival and regional influence as existential, and it has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to absorb losses, act through proxies, and play the long game.
‘The quiet that follows an exchange of missiles should not be mistaken for peace. It is often the eye of the storm.’
So what’s at stake for the countries involved, both directly and indirectly?
Iran
In short, its very existence. In recent weeks, Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons facilities have also been brought up, though there is no evidence to suggest they have weapons of mass destruction.
But Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has faced years of challenge to his rule, beginning with the Women, Life, Freedom movement after the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman who was brutally beaten and murdered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Despite protests in recent years, both Mr Yildiz and Mr Pack agree that it’s unlikely we will see a popular uprising to topple the government.
But from external powers? They say we’ll have to wait and see.
Israel
For Israel, it appears the goal remains on destroying Iranian proxies and toppling the government, based on past comments from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Hamas, which launched the cross-border attack on October 7, is a proxy of Iran.
‘The regime in Iran is a threat to our destiny, to our very existence, and to the fate of all humanity,’ Netanyahu said last month.
‘This is what will happen if it obtains nuclear weapons. If we lose this battle, the Western nations will be next.’
Netanyahu has repeatedly made claims that Iran is creating weapons of mass destruction, a claim which has not been proven, but was the basis of their barrage of missile attacks, which sparked the conflict two weeks ago.
In addition to destroying any alleged weapons of mass destruction, based on past comments from Israeli politicians, they also hope to topple the Ayatollah and the Islamic Regime to keep up their title of the ‘only democracy in the Middle East’.
United States
Mr Yildiz said one of the stakes for the US is oil in the region, but it’s important to remember that the US itself is also a large producer of oil.
If the conflict were to deteriorate, Mr Yildiz believes the US elite would cash in.
‘The US would make money out of higher oil prices, but that wouldn’t be reflected for the average US consumer, who would pay loads more for the petrol they use,’ he noted.
‘Another layer to the US stakes is Russia. If the US is focused on Iran, talks with Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire would become more convoluted. Iran and Russia are allies, so Russia would likely bring up the situation in the region when negotiating about Ukraine.’
The US is Israel’s closest ally, so whatever stakes Israel has in this conflict, the US more than likely backs them.
China
For China, two issues are at stake: oil supply from Iran, through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Belt and Road initiative (China’s plan for a ‘New Silk Road’).
If the Middle East is destabilised further, the cost of petrol in China will increase, placing pressure on an already tumultuous economy.
It would also hinder their efforts to connect China with the rest of the world through transportation and energy, through the Belt and Road Initiative.
Mr Yildiz added: ‘If the region is unstable, they could use that opportunity of the US being distracted to focus on Taiwan.’
Russia
As usual, Russia is a wild card.
Not only do they have skin in the game with Iran, they also have ties to China and a tenuous relationship with the United States.
Dr Nouri explained: ‘Russia, facing pressure in Ukraine, would likely double down on its strategic partnerships with Iran to preserve influence and challenge US-Israeli dominance.
‘These shifts could shuffle alliances, encouraging new pragmatic alignments such as closer ties between Iran and Russia, or Turkey balancing between NATO and Eurasian blocs – further complicating the region’s already fluid power dynamics.’
But some experts have also pointed out that Russia, which has supplied Iran with weapons before, is preoccupied with Ukraine, so it might not become as involved as they were with conflicts such as the Syrian War.
European Union
What does the EU have at stake if the conflict spreads?
Mr Yildiz had choice words for Ursula von der Leyen and co.
‘The EU is a bloc of a very strong economy, which is punching well below its weight in international politics,’ he said.
‘They’re divided – one group of states talks about sanctioning Israel, and others say Israel is doing their dirty work against Iran. They have little to offer the region.
‘Before, it was democracy, liberalism, and human rights, but now that will have little impact due to their own inconsistencies.
‘The EU is a bystander, but instability in the region does still affect them greatly.’
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