The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to extend its longest easing cycle since 2019, with economists predicting a 0.25% cut in the benchmark interest rate to 7%, as the country braces for the economic impact of looming US trade tariffs.
Governor Lesetja Kganyago is expected to announce the decision at a press briefing on Thursday at 15:00, just one day before the deadline set by US President Donald Trump for nations to reach bilateral trade deals or face steep tariffs on exports to the US.
Traders are pricing in an 84% likelihood of a quarter-point rate reduction, according to market estimates.
The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), consisting of six members, is anticipated to make a unanimous decision, as most economists agree that the current economic conditions call for a rate cut.
Tariffs and Economic Growth Concerns
The rate cut comes amid mounting concerns over the potential economic fallout from Trump’s trade deadline, which could impose a 30% tariff on South African exports to the US.
In a worst-case scenario, the SARB has estimated that such tariffs could reduce South Africa’s GDP growth by as much as 0.6% and increase inflation by 0.4 percentage points.
Kganyago has also warned that up to 100 000 jobs could be lost in key industries such as agriculture and automotive, which are particularly vulnerable to global trade disruptions.
The SARB’s decision to lower rates is seen as an effort to stimulate growth in light of South Africa’s sluggish economy.
A Final Opportunity for Rate Cuts?
Thursday’s meeting could be the last opportunity for the SARB to lower rates before it faces the full impact of the tariffs.
With South Africa’s economy struggling to maintain growth amid high interest rates and external trade pressures, the SARB faces a delicate balancing act.
The upcoming decision on interest rates is likely to have lasting effects on the country’s economic trajectory as it navigates a turbulent global trade environment and works to manage inflation and employment risks.
Who are the SARB’s MPC?
The South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee meets every second month to announce changes – if any – to the country’s repo and prime lending rates.
The meetings in 2025 are scheduled to take place in January, March, May, July, September and November – and always on a Thursday at 15:00.
Currently, the committee comprises of six people, with Lesetja Kganyago holding the position of governor of the SARB – and the deciding vote if necessary.
The repo rate currently stands at 7.25% while the prime lending rate is 10.75%.
| Month | Date | Outcome |
| January | 30 January | 25 basis point cut |
| March | 20 March | No change |
| May | 29 May | 25 basis point cut |
| July | 31 July | ? |
| September | 18 September | |
| November | 20 November |
Monthly bond repayment table
The table below shows the current monthly bond repayments on various bond values over a 20-year period assuming no deposit and repayments at prime.
It also shows what the ‘new’ monthly bond repayments would be should there be a 25 basis point cut as well as what monthly saving that would equate to.
| Bond | Current | New | Saving |
| R750 000 | R7 614 | R7 488 | R126 |
| R800 000 | R8 122 | R7 987 | R135 |
| R850 000 | R8 629 | R8 486 | R143 |
| R900 000 | R9 137 | R8 985 | R152 |
| R950 000 | R9 645 | R9 485 | R160 |
| R1 000 000 | R10 152 | R9 984 | R168 |
| R1 500 000 | R15 228 | R14 976 | R252 |
| R2 000 000 | R20 305 | R19 968 | R337 |
| R2 500 000 | R25 381 | R24 960 | R421 |
| R3 000 000 | R30 457 | R29 951 | R516 |
| R3 500 000 | R35 533 | R34 943 | R590 |
| R4 000 000 | R40 609 | R39 935 | R684 |
| R4 500 000 | R45 685 | R44 927 | R758 |
| R5 000 000 | R50 761 | R49 919 | R842 |
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