four keys to understanding an unprecedented catastrophe

The worst forecasts are confirmed for the historic hurricane Miltonwhich is moving away from the area of ​​Cancún and Mérida (Yucatán, Mexico) towards Tampa (Florida, USA) where it will make landfall throughout Wednesday. After passing from tropical storm to category 5 cyclone in 24 hoursan unprecedented depth for experts, had briefly fallen back to level 4 during the day on Tuesday.

However, and fueled by the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for this time of year, Milton has been energized and has once again reached category 5. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States has classified it as “enormously dangerous” and the evacuation of more than a million people has been ordered in the Tampa Bay area, in a state already affected by the passage of Hurricane Helene two weeks ago.

Why does it accumulate so much energy?

Tropical storms become hurricanes extract energy from warm ocean currentswhich explains why the Gulf of Mexico is one of its main “incubators.” The warmer the waters, the more “gasoline” to fuel the potentially destructive effects of these phenomena, as meteorologist Francisco Martín León explained.

However, climate change has caused sea waters to reach record temperatures in recent years, as Oceans absorb 90% of greenhouse emissions. Added to this are the successive milestones in global temperature: 2024 could end up as the warmest year in history, displacing the milestones of 2023 and 2022.

According to the agency Reutersthe European Union Climate Change Service Copernicus estimates that the warming of the last twelve months has exceeded the 1.62ºC above pre-industrial levels. This represents a breach of the Paris Agreement, which set the limit at 1.5ºC.

What is your strength? And its intensity?

The force of a hurricane is measured by the sustained wind speed that accompany her. Category 1 begins at 120 km/h, while category 5 is declared when they reach more than 250 km/has happens with Milton. The intensity It is measured by the speed at which the winds accelerate, and it is measured in each section of more than 50 km/h that increases in 24 hours.

Milton has already become the third hurricane of history in the Atlantic in terms of speed of intensification, jumping from the previous hurricane category – tropical storm – to a maximum category hurricane in just one day. A study published in 2023 in Scientific Reports pointed out that have been doubled the chances of a hurricane going from Category 1 to Category 3 in 36 hours, compared to the period 1971-1990.

The waters of the Gulf of Mexico have broken historical records in recent weeks by keep at 32ºC despite the time of year. Researcher Andra Garner from Rowan University in New Jersey has explained to Reuters that the speed of Milton’s intensification is in the 99% percentile of all the maximums ever observed in the Atlantic. “Watching it get stronger in real time has been startling“, he confessed.

Why is rapid escalation dangerous?

Mainly because if it happens near the coast, it tends to surprise the inhabitants before they can prepare. This is what happened last year on the Pacific coast of Mexico with the Cyclone Otiswhich also reached the category 5 hours before hitting Acapulco. The fastest in history has been Wilma, which hit Yucatán in 2005, followed by Félix in 2007.

Fortunately, Milton has moved deeper into the Caribbean and has allowed the evacuation to be moved forward, but the problem is that Florida has not yet recovered from the impact of Helene, which has left debris on traffic routes and caused fuel and energy shortages. The succession of more frequent hurricanes that intensify faster increases its destructive potential.

Why does it cause so much fear in the population?

The other major anomaly of Milton is its trajectory: it is going to impact the west coast of Florida, a region that It has not been affected by hurricanes for 100 years. It is an area at sea level surrounded by lagoons, making it very vulnerable to flooding. And unlike the east coast, which is usually more prepared against extreme events, it does not have as many dikes or fixed barriers.

In 1921, the hurricane that hit the city of Tampa was a category 3, with winds of 120 km/h, and caused eight deaths. Now, more than 450 mm of rain in flash floodswhich can quickly flood neighborhoods, subways, and the islands of Tampa Bay. When it comes to one of the most populated regions in Florida, material losses are estimated to reach “billions of dollars.”