Donald Trump has been cited with Vladimir Putin one day in the next two weeks in Budapest. The presidents of the United States and Russia will hold a second summit in the capital of Hungary to find, why not, a negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine.
Just as it happened last August in Alaska, no one expects the Ukrainian president Volodímir Zelenski have a reserved seat. Trump’s interest in holding a trilateral summit appears to have faded after the more than two-hour telephone conversation he had on Thursday with his Russian counterpart.
The expectations of Simon Schlegelanalyst of the Zentrum Liberale Moderne, a think tank based in Berlin, are rather low.
“The most likely thing is that Putin will repeat his maximalist demands: that Ukraine give up territory, forever rule out the possibility of joining NATO and reduce the size of its army,” explains the specialist in conversation with this newspaper. “All of this is unacceptable for Ukraine, whether now or in August, when Putin and Trump met in Alaska, or three and a half years ago, when Putin invaded Ukraine.”
“To make matters worse,” adds Schlegel, “for both Ukraine and the European Union, Putin and Trump will meet in the very heart of Europe, where the infamous Budapest Memorandum was signed, in which Russia promised in vain to respect Ukraine’s borders in exchange for Ukraine handing over its nuclear weapons.”
This Friday, the European Commission limited itself to pointing out that, although the meeting has not been confirmed, “there are no entry bans” into the EU for Putin. The spokesperson for the Community Executive, Anitta Hipperwas leaving the door open.
Yuri Ushakovan advisor to the Kremlin, confessed that the choice of Budapest as the venue for the meeting was made by Trump. Putin did not object. In fact, Ushakov assured that the Russian president “immediately” accepted the proposal. The reason is obvious. Trump and Putin have a common friend in Hungary. Viktor Orbán He is an ideological ally of the former and a political admirer of the latter.
The Hungarian Prime Minister not only makes it easier for the parties to organize the summit, but also aspires to be much more than a mere host. From the outset, Orbán promised Putin immunity before the International Criminal Court (ICC). The same immunity that he offered to the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahuwhen he visited the country in April.
The Russian president has no reason to fear being detained at the request of the Hague Court, which has wanted him since March 2023 for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The big unknown is knowing how it will fly from Moscow to Budapest.
What route can you take to minimize your chances of being detained? Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskovacknowledged this Friday that “of course, the answer remains unclear.”
It remains to be seen whether or not Putin’s Ilyushin Il-96 can count on US protection. Protection that the White House already gave him in their first meeting in Alaska and that Oleg IgnatovRussia analyst for the Crisis Group, takes it for granted.
“If it is through NATO airspace, the American fighters will guarantee Putin’s security,” anticipates the specialist in dialogue with EL ESPAÑOL. “It’s no problem.”
The routes that Putin can follow to land in Budapest
1. Russia, Türkiye, Montenegro, Serbia and Hungary
It is the most likely route because it is the safest route for Putin. It would avoid flying over Ukraine, whose airspace has remained closed to civil flights since the start of the large-scale invasion, in addition to the Baltic countries and Poland, the most hostile to the Kremlin within the EU and NATO.
With this itinerary, the Russian president would also avoid Slovakia, a country that, despite being governed by the prime minister Robert Ficoone of its Trojan horses in the European Union, is also a signatory of the Rome Statute, the treaty that recognizes the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Putin, however, would cross Montenegro. The Balkan country recognizes the legitimacy of the Hague Court and is not only a candidate to join the community institutions but is also a member of NATO.
Serbia also recognizes the jurisdiction of the ICC, but in Belgrade the president rules with an iron fist Aleksandar Vucica good friend of Putin and one of the few international leaders who attended his Victory Day parade on May 9.
2. Russia, Caucasus, Türkiye, Montenegro, Serbia and Hungary
This itinerary is similar to the previous one, with the only difference that the Russian president would border the Black Sea, one of the scenarios where the war is being fought. This route would make him travel even more kilometers than the first, a detail that shows his diplomatic isolation in the Western sphere.
Putin would be forced to fly over either Georgia or Armenia and Azerbaijan. Three Caucasian allies who, it is true, would not object. Furthermore, unlike Tbilisi and Yerevan, Baku does not even sign the Rome Statute. Nothing to fear.
3. Russia, Türkiye, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary
Despite being a member of NATO, Türkiye enters almost all foreseeable routes because, on the one hand, it does not recognize the authority of the ICC and Recep Tayyip Erdogan He has a more than cordial relationship with Putin. Trump also believes that the Turkish president is “respected by Russia” and can mediate the eventual peace agreement in Ukraine.
On this journey, however, Putin would have to cross Bulgaria and Romania, two EU member countries that recognize the legitimacy of the Hague Court and with which the Kremlin maintains rather tense diplomatic relations as a result of the so-called “special military operation.”
4. Russia, Belarus, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary
It is the most unlikely path because it is the most insecure path for Putin. Flying over its Belarusian satellite is a mere procedure, it is true, but it would then have to cross the airspace of Poland, a prominent member of the EU, a NATO partner with the highest GDP spending on defense and a signatory of the Rome Statute.
The ultranationalist president Karol Nawrockibacked by the Law and Justice party (PiS), is a friend of Trump, but his connection with the conservative party Jarosław Kaczyński makes it unthinkable that he would give the green light for Putin’s plane to fly over the country.
In 2010, the head of PiS lost his brother, the then president Lech Kaczyńskiin a plane crash near the Russian city of Smolensk, in which another 95 people died. Kaczyński, nemesis of the prime minister, Donald Tuskalways accused Russia of orchestrating the tragedy. “The decision had to have been made at the highest level of the Kremlin,” he assured in 2022. Polish courts, however, never found evidence.
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