Haaretz: Hamas is strengthening its grip on Gaza and the influence of the tribes is fading news

Haaretz newspaper said that estimates by the Israeli security establishment indicate that the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has succeeded in strengthening its control in the Gaza Strip since the ceasefire agreement took effect on October 10.

According to the report of military correspondent Yaniv Kobowitz, estimates within the occupation army indicate that Hamas “did not lose its control over the Gaza Strip, even for a single day,” and that it prepared in advance for this stage by keeping thousands of fighters in reserve to regain control of the joints of government immediately after the cessation of military operations.

He stressed that the movement has practically regained positions of authority, administration, and security in the Strip, while Israel’s recent attempts to create local alternatives from clans or agents have faded.

According to the report, the Israeli military establishment is following with concern the growing manifestations of organization and discipline among Hamas police officers, who have returned to field work regularly in most of the cities of the Gaza Strip, and are currently undertaking the tasks of enforcing public order and pursuing thieves and criminals.

He pointed out that the movement regained control over municipal offices and government institutions in Gaza, Khan Yunis, and Rafah, and appointed figures affiliated with it to leadership positions within the civil apparatus, indicating that the “post-war” phase began to proceed according to Hamas’ vision and not according to the Israeli or American plan.

The security establishment acknowledges that Israel’s recent attempts to strengthen some local tribes against Hamas have failed, and the Haaretz report is based on sources that spoke of “the dismantling of most of the tribal formations that have emerged in recent weeks, and their leaders being threatened, persecuted, or even liquidated by members of Hamas.” A senior Israeli officer told the newspaper, “The tribes no longer actually exist as an organized force, and Hamas has reinstalled complete deterrence in Gaza.”

The report indicates that the Israeli army monitored during the past weeks that Hamas members opened fire on anyone who tried to cooperate with Israel. He added, “The message quickly reached everyone: No one is contesting Hamas for power.” On the other hand, no protests or popular uprisings were recorded against the movement despite the harsh living conditions, which surprised some analysts in Israel who expected a social explosion against it after two years of war. The security establishment clarifies that the few appearances observed on social media do not constitute an actual danger, and it is not expected to turn into a widespread protest movement.

The Haaretz report said that the Israeli army believes that the entry of any external party into the Gaza Strip – especially Turkey – may further strengthen Hamas’ position and give it a political and security umbrella to protect it from Israeli pressure. Therefore, there is growing concern within the security establishment that the US plan to form an international force in Gaza with Turkish participation “may translate on the ground into the rehabilitation of Hamas under humanitarian cover,” which Israel considers a direct threat to its post-war strategy.

The ambiguity of the second stage

At the same time, the Israeli army admits that the residents of the Gaza Strip do not appear in a rush to return to their homes in northern Gaza, despite the ceasefire being in effect. According to the numbers cited in the report, about 150,000 people remained in the north during the fighting, and after the ceasefire agreement entered into force, only about 200,000 returned. The army attributes this hesitation to the fear of renewed fighting and the lack of infrastructure, as tens of thousands have completely lost their homes.

But the biggest concern for the army now is the possibility of tens of thousands of civilians leaving the crowded “humanitarian areas” towards what is known as the “yellow line,” which is the Israeli withdrawal line approved under the agreement. The military leadership fears that this random movement will lead to friction between civilians and Israeli soldiers deployed along the line, which could spark unintended field confrontations.

Haaretz notes that the army is facing difficulty in preparing a coherent plan in light of the political uncertainty regarding the future of the sector. So far, no basic details have been agreed upon in the “second phase” of the understandings with Hamas, including “the policy of shooting, the mechanism for thwarting attacks, the nature of the multinational force and its field powers, and the extent of its cooperation – or non-cooperation – with Hamas.”

The newspaper confirms that foreign teams that were supposed to participate in formulating this mechanism have already arrived in Israel (the newspaper did not indicate the identity of these teams), but they were unable to develop a practical model for implementation due to disagreements over the distribution of powers between the Israeli army and international forces. Army leaders believe that the absence of this clarity makes it difficult to build a “sound operational defense line” and keeps the forces on constant alert without a clear strategic vision.

In a related context, security sources revealed to the newspaper that Israel suspended talks with Egypt regarding reopening the Rafah crossing as a means of pressuring Hamas to hand over the bodies of Israeli prisoners. She explained that the crossing is expected to open for the first time in January of next year, but this is linked to the availability of large engineering and security equipment, including the installation of new inspection and audit gates.