After Donald Trump’s decision to dramatically intervene in the conflict between Israel and Iran, many urgent questions are being asked.
Does Israel have nuclear weapons – and how many? And could the conflict trigger a wider war, even World War III? Has it started already?
As Iran mulls whether to retaliate against the US after three key nuclear sites were bombed, understanding what is at stake is more important than ever.
This is what we know about Israel’s nuclear arsenal, and whether the current crisis could spiral into a much larger war.
Does Israel have nuclear weapons?
Israel’s military superiority in the Middle East comes not just through its conventional arsenal or the backing of the US – but from its rich nuclear arsenal.
It is one of nine countries to possess such nukes, and the only one in the region – and it is widely believed to have one of the most advanced such programmes in the world.
Despite widespread acknowledgement by experts and former government officials of their existence, Israel has never confirmed this.
Since the 1960s, it has followed a policy of nuclear ambiguity. At the time, it went to great lengths hide its nuclear ambitions from the international community, even its closest allies.
Even US inspectors were misled during early visits to the Nuclear Research Center near Dimona, in the Negev desert, which was initially described as a textile factory.
Today, estimates of its stockpile range between 90 and 400 warheads, all of which could be delivered by air, as cruise missiles fired from submarines and through the Jericho line of ballistic missiles.
A few days before Israel’s unprecedented attack on Iran, in which dozens of people – most of them civilians – have been killed, Iran had threatened to release a hoard of Israeli nuclear secrets it claims to have obtained.
Last Sunday, Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, claimed the regime had obtained ‘a vast collection of strategic and sensitive documents, including plans and data on the nuclear facilities’.
Does Iran have nuclear weapons?
Iran is transparent about having a nuclear programme but insists that it has developed no warheads.
But ever since the US pulled out of a landmark nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 2018 under Donald Trump, it has been ramping up production of fissile material in recent years.
Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons programme to do so.
Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms.
During his second term in the Oval Office, Trump has been working to reach an agreement on curbing Iran’s programme.
There have been several rounds of talks between the US and Iran – up until the Israeli attacks – and Trump imposed new sanctions on the country as part of his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign.
How far is Iran from a nuclear bomb?
A nuclear bomb isn’t something you can just build overnight – it comes down to uranium enrichment.
Uranium contains a radioactive isotope, called U-235, that can be used as a power source. The more refined it is – enriched – the more powerful it is, which can be achieved by spinning it around in a centrifuge.
Nuclear power plants only need relatively unenriched uranium at 0.7% to 5%, while weapons-grade nuclear weapons need 90%.
The International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran has about 400kg worth of uranium enriched to 60%. At 90% enrichment, this is enough for 10 warheads.
Iran Watch warns that the country could enrich enough uranium for one weapon in four months, and five in one year and eight months. Though, Iran would also need to build a warhead and a missile capable of delivering it.
If the US claims about the extent of damage at the three nuclear sites prove correct, these efforts will likely have taken a massive hit.
Why has the US attacked Iran?
The US launched strikes early this morning against three nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz.
President Donald Trump announced from the White House: ‘Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.’
Trump has said Iran cannot be allowed to develop nuclear weapons which could be used to attack Israel or other targets in the West.
Sir Keir Starmer backed the strikes, describing the nuclear programme as ‘a grave threat to international security’.
Could the Israel-Iran conflict lead to World War III?
Even after the involvement of the US, it is unlikely that it will result in a global conflict.
Jason Pack, fellow at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and host of the Disorder Podcast, told Metro that the Iranian regime is ‘really weakened’.
He said: ‘The Iranians don’t have the capability to bring us to World War III.
‘It is much more likely to see the Iranian people rise up against the regime than we are to see the Iranians like land some decisive blow against Israel.’
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