How does Trump’s plan regarding the Gaza war affect Israel? | policy

The issue of the war on the Gaza Strip is still controversial within political circles in Tel Aviv and in general Israeli society, as most people see the war that the Prime Minister said Benjamin Netanyahu He fought it against 7 fronts that have not yet ended, despite the agreement on a ceasefire with the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the beginning of implementing the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s plan related to ending the war on Gaza.

Netanyahu and his ruling coalition’s focus on Gaza more than on other fronts was the subject of a study he published Future Research Center Under the title “How does Trump’s plan regarding the Gaza war affect Israel?By researcher Saeed Okasha.

The study reviewed in detail the repercussions of the Trump plan on the positions of Israeli public opinion, and the impact of the plan itself on the cohesion of the ruling coalition led by Netanyahu.

Israeli public opinion

The study indicated that Israeli opinion polls largely revealed the extent of Israeli society’s hesitation between rigor and flexibility regarding issues related to this war, including the position on Trump’s plan.

This hesitation was demonstrated by the following:

1- The position on ending the Gaza war with the aim of recovering the prisoners: Before Trump presented his plan regarding the Gaza war, an Israeli Democracy Institute poll conducted in mid-September 2025 showed that 60% of Israeli Jews supported stopping the war in exchange for the return of the prisoners.

After the Trump plan was presented, Israeli public opinion showed great support for it. A Maariv newspaper poll conducted on October 3 showed that 66% support the plan.

2- The trends of Israeli public opinion if the general elections were held earlySeveral opinion polls showed last September, before the Trump plan was presented, that if elections were held early in Israel, the Likud Party would obtain between 22 and 25 seats in the Knesset out of a total of 120 seats, while its main competitor, the Bennett Party, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, would obtain a minimum of 15 seats or a maximum of 24 seats.

In either case, Likud and its partners will not be able to form the government, which needs at least 61 votes to gain the confidence of members of the Knesset.

3- The most suitable person for the position of Prime Minister of Israel: Netanyahu’s popularity underwent sharp changes during the two years of the Gaza war, and remained between 30 and 35% until last August, before the emergence of Trump’s plan to end this war.

After the Trump plan and the return of prisoners were presented, Netanyahu received the support of 58% of participants in the JNS website poll on October 15, followed by Bennett with 22%.

The study indicated that caution should be exercised in building on these results, because opinion polls are usually affected by changing events and do not necessarily express fixed positions in the long term, and the difference in methods for conducting polls from one source to another may lead to different results, and the difference in results sometimes leads to the emergence of a wide and illogical gap between them.

Ruling coalition

The study touched on the internal problems facing the ruling coalition, which went beyond conflicts affecting political cohesion, to sectarian divisions that led to a major rift in Israeli public opinion.

The roots of this crisis go back to before the war on Gaza, when the issue of recruiting members of the Haredi sect, represented by the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, was raised in the Knesset and the coalition some time ago.

Last July, the “United Torah Judaism” party announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition, and that it would not support the government in the Knesset in the event of a vote of confidence on it. As for the “Shas” party, it contented itself with withdrawing its ministers from the coalition, while pledging to continue to support it in the Knesset.

The background to this crisis is due to the Supreme Court’s decision in June 2023 to prevent the Minister of Defense from exempting the Haredim from military service, and to demand that the government prepare a new law in this regard that achieves equality among all members of the Israeli people in bearing responsibility for defending the country. If such legislation is not issued within a year, everyone who does not respond to compulsory service will be considered as evading national duty.

For its part, the Israeli army announced – earlier – that the rabbis of the Haredi sect are inciting their youth not to respond to summonses for military service and defense of the homeland, but the sect’s rabbis say that the government that behaves in this way towards Torah students is committing a shameful act and must be overthrown.

The Haredi parties could support Trump’s plan because it will strip the government and Israeli public opinion of the excuse of the need to recruit their followers because of the army’s need for new soldiers in light of the ongoing Gaza war.

On the other hand, the religious Zionist parties that voted against Trump’s plan want to resume the war until their goals are achieved, most notably the elimination of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and perhaps to restore the opportunity to displace Palestinians from Gaza in the future, according to their vision.

Three possibilities

Faced with these options, Netanyahu finds great difficulties in maintaining the cohesion of the coalition that supports him, and given the conflict surrounding Trump’s plan, he will face three possibilities, which are as follows:

1. The possibility of the government being subjected to a confidence vote in the Knesset after its return from its summer vacation on October 20.
2. The lack of clarity about the next step in implementing the Trump plan after the recovery of the prisoners; Their families demand that the next two stages (disarmament of Gaza, formation of the Transitional Governing Council, and reconstruction) not be negotiated before the bodies of the remaining prisoners are recovered.
3. Passing the annual budget next March, the failure of which could call for the Knesset to be dissolved and early elections to be held.

The study concluded that the Trump plan, in light of its incomplete stages and in light of the possibility that the Hamas movement will refuse to adhere to the clause – in the plan – to disarm itself and the factions in Gaza, will remain vulnerable to failure, which may lead to the outbreak of war again, which will give an opportunity for the continuation of the coalition led by Netanyahu by calming the conflicts until the legal date for holding the general elections scheduled for October. 2026.