MEXICO CITY.- This Thursday, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced that the Gross domestic product (GDP) from Mexico fell 0.3% quarterly in the third quarter of 2025driven mainly by the secondary sector, related to industry.
The fall occurred due to the quarterly decline of the sector industrial (-1.5%), although it contrasted an advance in the agriculture (3.2%) and in the services (0.1%), Inegi detailed in its report, based on seasonally adjusted figures, without seasonal factors.
In the third quarter of 2025, and with figures adjusted for seasonality, the results of the Timely Estimate of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product #EOPIBT indicate that the #PIB fell 0.3% in real terms, at a quarterly rate. At an annual rate, the timely estimate presented a… pic.twitter.com/RSXsyy2K9c
— INEGI INFORMA (@INEGI_INFORMA) October 30, 2025
He Mexico’s GDP fell 0.2% year-on-year in the period from July to September, accumulating growth of 0.2% so far this year.
The year-on-year drop in the quarter was the result of a decline in primary activities (-2.9%), and an advance in primary activities (3.6%) and tertiary activities (1%).
Graph of the economy of Mexico
This is what Mexico’s economic growth looks like
pic.twitter.com/RTEyzqZyOM
— Gabriela Siller Pagaza (@GabySillerP) October 30, 2025
On her account on the social network “X”, formerly Twitter, Gabriela Siller Pagaza, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE and professor of Economics at Tecnológico de Monterrey, published a graph showing what “the economic growth of Mexico looks like.”
With these data, Mexico’s GDP accumulates growth of 0.2% so far this year, below the 0.6% projected last month.
Three consecutive quarters with growth at an annual rate
In the first nine months of 2025, there were year-on-year increases in the agricultural sector (4.2%) and services (1.1%), but industry fell -1.8 percent.
With these statistics, Mexico’s economy spins three consecutive quarters with growth at an annual rate.
Expectation about Mexico’s economy
Private sector specialists consulted by the Bank of Mexico They anticipate that the Mexican economy will grow 0.53% in 2025, according to the latest survey carried out by the central bank at the end of September.
For its part, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects a Mexican GDP growth of 0.8% during the yearwhile the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts economic growth of 1 percent.
The fall in Mexico is reported after it was reported that the United States economywhere more than 80% of Mexican exports go, grew 3.8% during the second quarter.
Mexico’s GDP is also disclosed amid increases in its forecasts for 2025.
He World Bank increased the growth expectation for 2025 from 0.2% at the beginning of the year, to 0.5% in September, for its part, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) last week raised its growth forecast for Mexico this year to 0.6% from a previous 0.3%, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its forecast in September to a rate of 1% from a previous 0.2%.
Mexico’s economy grew 1.5% in 2024, but fell 0.6% from October to December, its first contraction at a quarterly rate in the last three years, given the uncertainty caused by the presidential election of Donald Trump in the United States.
The country grew by 3.2% in 2023, 3.9% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2021, according to updated figures from Inegi, while so far in 2025, Inegi has recorded an increase of 1.2% in national GDP.
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