Insolvencies in Portugal Could Fall 8% in 2025

Allianz Trade released its latest Insolvency Report, which analyzes the impact of tariffs applied by the US and changes in global trade on company insolvencies, with forecasts until 2027.

Globally, company insolvencies are expected to increase by 6% by the end of 2025reaching a peak in 2026, marking the fifth consecutive increase (+5%). For 2027, a slight decrease of 1% is estimated.

With regard to Portugal, Allianz Trade’s forecasts are more optimistic, pointing to an 8% reduction in insolvencies in 2025, which represents around 2,180 companies in a situation of insolvency. In 2026, a very slight decrease of 1% is expected.

The insurer’s report also highlights that Customs tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, with an effective rate of 14% until the end of the year, have had an unequal impact on companies.

Although American companies are benefiting from price adjustments and the redirection of goods to third countries such as India and Vietnam, the Increased insolvencies could affect economies heavily dependent on exports, such as Canada, France, Spain and the Netherlands.

Maxime Lemerle, analyst at Allianz Trade, states that “in the first half of 2025, the protective effects of tariffs helped reduce insolvencies in the US by -4 percentage points. However, export-oriented economies are expected to see an increase in insolvencies.”

As Insolvency forecasts for 2026 indicate an increase of 5% globally, which puts insolvency levels around 24% above the pre-pandemic average.

Allianz Trade CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui explains that “the risks of domino effects are increasing, with major insolvencies becoming more likely”.

Allianz Trade highlights three vulnerabilities that could affect companies’ resilience: moderate economic growth, restrictive financing conditions and sectoral weaknesses, especially in the construction and automotive sectors.

Furthermore, the proliferation of new companies, driven by digitalization and the GIG economy, may increase insolvency risks, especially in countries such as Portugal, France and Italy.

Ano Kuhanathan, Director of Business Studies at Allianz Trade, concludes that “the end of the AI-induced boom could lead to a significant increase in insolvencies.”