Pandora’s box has been cast wide open with Israel’s bombardments on a number of military and nuclear facilities across Iran – an escalation that risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi called the strikes a ‘declaration of war’, urging the United Nations to ‘immediately address this issue’.
This comes after Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the attacks will continue ‘for days’, while US president Donald Trump said the ‘next already planned attacks’ will be ‘even more brutal’.
In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed ‘severe punishment’.
So, with Israel and Iran on war footing, how do their militaries compare?
Manpower
The Global Firepower index (GFP) grades the strength and capabilities of every military in the world.
Until recently, Iran was higher than Israel on the index, dropping to number 16, while Israel climbed to 15, out of 145 respectively. For perspective, the US, Russia and China are the top three.
For its manpower, Iran still dominates over its adversary. There are a fair few reasons for that.
Israel’s population is a little over 9.4 million, according to 2023 estimates, while Iran has nearly 10 times more than that at 88,550,000.
This is also reflected in their armies. Active personnel in Iran surpasses 600,000,while Israel has hundreds of thousands fewer people to call on.
Defence spending
Israel is a big spender when it comes to defence. GFP’s number-crunching reveals that Israel’s budget is roughly £22 million – a huge jump from £18 million in the beginning of the year.
Iran’s is a comparatively measly £11 million – an increase from £7 million.
Western sanctions certainly don’t help Iran’s budget – but the country does not rely on state cash as much, the Washington-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD) says.
‘The military establishment controls [one-fifth] of the market value of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and owns thousands of other companies, all of which generate revenue for the armed forces,’ the FDD says.
‘Additionally, the IRGC controls a significant portion of Iran’s underground economy.’
Weapons
Where does all this money go? Weapons for one.
Israel has had nuclear weapons to hand since the 1960s, though has never exactly been honest about that. The Nuclear Threat Initiative estimates the nation has 90 nuclear warheads, with enough nuclear material to make up to 300.
Iran also has the means to build nuclear weapons – and this is one of the reasons Israel bombed the country overnight.
Iran has an almost incomparable missile arsenal. From anti-ship missiles and cruise missiles to ballistic missiles with ranges of about 1,200 miles, these weapons can easily strike Israel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Analysts say the nation has the most developed short- and medium-range missile system in the region.
The country has never exactly shied away from showing this stockpile off, with troves of drones and missiles often wheeled out during military parades – Russia also often uses Iran-made drones in its war in Ukraine.
On land and air power, Iran previously had the quantity while Israel had the quality – but this has also flipped in recent months,
Iran does have more tanks than Israel – its fleet of 1,731 compared to the 1,300 Israel has, the GPF ranking shows.
As much as Iran’s tanks are large in number, they are made up mostly of old creaky models that don’t really compare to modern models.
Israel’s are far more advanced – for one, there’s the powerful and hard-to-det Merkava, the IDF’s go-to battle tank.
Iran also has almost 66,000 armoured vehicles, while Israel has 50% less than them.
Up in the air, it’s a whole other ball game. The Iranian Air Force’s trove of 551 aircraft lags behind its Israeli counterpart’s 611 stockpile.
Similar to the tanks, Israel’s aircraft are slightly shinier than Iran’s, including modern fighter aircraft like F-15s, F-16s, and F-35s, trade magazine Flight International says.
Neither nation has much of a naval presence if the rank is any indication. Iran’s fleet strength is 107 compared to 62 and has 25 submarines to only five for Israel.
But tanks and soldier counts might not even matter for a rather simple reason – geography.
Iran is colossal in comparison to Israel – Jersulaen is about 1,149 miles away from Tehran – and the two states are separated by countries such as Iraq.
Aviation and missiles, therefore, will play a large role – and either side has something that one-ups the other.
‘In fact, a conflict would not take the form of a classic war, but would rather be an exchange of blows over long distances,’ one expert told DW.
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