South African motorists began the new year with welcome relief at the fuel pumps, and the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests that further price reductions could still be possible in early February.
Earlier this month, motorists saw petrol prices drop by between 62 and 66 cents per litre, depending on the grade, while diesel prices fell more sharply, declining by 137 to 150 cents per litre.
The cuts offered a much-needed reprieve for consumers after months of fluctuating fuel costs.
Optimism Tempered by Global Developments
However, hopes of another substantial reduction have been tempered by a recent increase in Brent crude oil prices, driven largely by renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
These developments have reduced the likelihood of a major fuel price cut next month, although the final adjustment will depend on how international oil prices and the rand perform in the weeks leading up to the next pricing announcement.
Relief Still in Sight
Despite global market volatility, analysts say the overall outlook remains cautiously positive, particularly for households grappling with ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
With fuel costs feeding directly into transport and food prices, even modest reductions could provide some relief for consumers and businesses alike.
Motorists will be watching closely as market conditions evolve, with the final February fuel price adjustment expected to reflect both global oil movements and domestic currency performance.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
| FUEL | PRICE CHANGE |
| Petrol 93 | decrease of 70 cents |
| Petrol 95 | decrease of 74 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | decrease of 74 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | decrease of 82 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | decrease of 66 cents |
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 70 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of 74 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 74 and 82 cents per litre decrease.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 66 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $63.96 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.36/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 3 February.
The current January 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):
| INLAND | January |
| Petrol 93 | R20.64 |
| Petrol 95 | R20.75 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R18.41 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R18.52 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.63 |
| COASTAL | January |
| Petrol 93 | R19.85 |
| Petrol 95 | R19.92 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R17.58 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R17.76 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R11.62 |
