liberal Jetten’s success story to bury the Wilders era in the Netherlands

His appearance marked a turning point in the electoral campaign. Jetten dominated the conversation. He left his comfort zone. He did not limit himself to talking about climate change and education, the usual topics of his party. On this occasion, the leader of Democrats 66 (D66) had no qualms about talking about migration, an issue dominated by the extreme right. Nor did he leave aside the housing crisis, one of the main concerns of young people.

That’s when his meteoric rise in the polls began. A promotion that materialized this Wednesday in the form of votes. With nearly 99% of the ballots counted, his D66 surpassed Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (PVV) by a difference of 15,000 votes, according to the Dutch press agency. ANP.

The socioliberal party is just one step away from winning its first parliamentary election, and Jetten is just one step away from being the next prime minister. He would become the first openly gay head of government and the youngest in the history of the Netherlands.

Wilders lost more than a quarter of the 37 seats he won in the last elections in November 2023. But the visible face of the Dutch extreme right is not giving up. “As long as there is not 100% clarity, D66 cannot take the initiative [para formar gobierno]. We will do everything possible to avoid it,” he declared on the social network X.

The final results will not arrive until next week. The winner will have preference to explore the options to reach a majority, but Wilders will not join the next Cabinet no matter how much he maintains his party as the leading political force in the country. Two-thirds of the parliamentary arc have excluded him from governance due to his tendency to break coalitions.

Idealism

The optimistic tone of Jetten’s campaign did not match the climate of polarization that flooded the political debate in the Netherlands. His message was at times shocking, strange, as if it had come from another planet.

“Rob Jetten’s appeal was based in part on the optimistic and energetic campaign he ran, presenting himself as a bridge builder between left and right,” explains Stinj van KesselProfessor of Comparative Politics at Queen Mary University of London.

“He placed less emphasis on the more progressive issues on the D66 agenda, such as climate change and LGBT rights, and adopted a stricter position regarding immigration,” adds the specialist.

According to the D66 campaign manager, Robert van Astenthe party had taken note of the mistakes of the past. “D66 was told that the moralistic tone did not work. That is why this time we opted for an optimistic tone with a view to the future,” Van Asten himself confessed in statements to the newspaper The Telegraph. The creation of content designed for TikTok also had an effect.

“The socioliberal party carried out a remarkably optimistic campaign in a country that appears gloomy. D66, as at other times in its history, presented itself as the centrist alternative for both left-wing and right-wing voters. And that is also reflected in the results,” the newspaper summarizes in its commentary. NRC.

“So far, this catch-all campaign strategy has worked,” Van Kessel notes. “Ultimately, Jetten managed to attract both voters who previously supported the left and those who had voted for right-wing parties, although forming a coalition with parties of different ideological orientations could be more difficult.”

“I see a large majority of parties that want to build something again in this country,” the D66 leader declared confidently.

Jetten envisions a coalition “for the broad center.” It intends to incorporate into the next Cabinet the joint platform of Greens and Labor (PvdA-GroenLinks), the conservatives of the Christian Democratic Call (CDA) of Henri Botenbal and the conservative liberals of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) of Dilan Yeşilgöz.

That combination would add up to 86 seats. But it will not be easy to articulate it. Yeşilgöz, successor of the former prime minister Mark Rutte at the head of the VVD, ruled out any pact with the PdvA-GroenLinks of Frans Timmermans. However, the former European Commissioner announced his resignation on Wednesday night after losing five seats and relegating his coalition to fourth place in Parliament.

Although Yeşilgöz said this Thursday that “nothing has changed” and that he continued to rule out joining a “left-wing Cabinet”, there is no doubt that Timmermans’ resignation opens a window of opportunity.

The alternative, furthermore, does not seem viable. This second path necessarily requires the parliamentary support of JA21, a split from the far-right Forum for Democracy (FvD) of Thierry Baudetwhich won nine seats in the House. Even so, it would take one more to reach the magic number of 76.

an old acquaintance

Jetten has a long road ahead of him to be prime minister, but he can break the Christian Democrat’s record Ruud Lubberswho took office in 1982 at the age of 43. Rutte was the same age when it premiered in 2010.

Although he is 38 years old, the leader of D66 is not a newcomer to The Hague. He has been a deputy, parliamentary group leader, party leader and Minister of Climate and Energy in Rutte’s fourth Cabinet. One of the leaders of the VVD, Klaas Dijkhoffonce called him a weather fanatic (climate pusherin Dutch). He stuck with that label.

Jetten has also suffered severe defeats at the polls. In the last election in which Wilders swept, for example, his D66 went from having 24 seats to just nine.

The dynamic began to change at the end of summer. In August, the national headquarters of D66 was attacked by far-right activists. The attack shocked public opinion. It aroused a wave of sympathy for the progressive liberal formation, which registered an exponential increase in members.

Another D66 headquarters, the one located in Leiden, erupted with joy on Wednesday night after learning of the exit polls, which placed the formation as the leading force in the country.

“The Netherlands has sent a very clear signal,” Jetten celebrated in front of the militancy. “Millions of Dutch people have turned the page. They have said goodbye to the politics of negativity and hatred. Millions of Dutch people have opted for positive forces and a policy that looks forward again.”

One of his challenges will be to appease the discontent that paves the way for the extreme right. For now, the socioliberal leader has managed to appease Wilders. But Wilders is not alone on that spectrum.

As the aforementioned newspaper comment warns NRCthe PVV “lost heavily, but the radical right-wing bloc — PVV, Forum for Democracy and JA21 —, although it does not have enough seats to form a government, is still just as large. If you count the Peasant-Citizen Movement (BBB), which in the campaign approached the PVV, the shift towards the radical right two years ago was not an isolated phenomenon.”