We are 189 days away from becoming the only country on the planet to have hosted three inaugural soccer World Cup games. Unlike 1970 and 1986, this time we have to be co-hosts with our two T-MEC partners: the United States and Canada, two nations that, in addition to being our closest neighbors, according to Matt Cunningham, specialist in economic and financial issues at Focus Economics (www.focus-economics.com), will close this year as the number one and nine economies on the planet, respectively.
We, with jobs, are going to be scratching the 15th position and that is because for this year, which only has 30 days left to live, we are going to have a growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.39 percent.
And before anyone comes out with the “other data” spiel, I would like to clarify that this figure was recently released by both the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and economic specialists from the private sector.
For practical purposes, these numbers only mean one thing: the country is going through an economic slowdown which will continue for the coming year. Therefore, the growth forecast for 2026 is just 1 percent which, little by little, will be pulverized until it remains, although we are doing well, at 0.6-0.7 percent. We won’t even reach one percentage point.
This panorama, gloomy from any angle, shows us an extremely complicated reality for the so-called ordinary citizens: the economy is not collapsing, but it is not advancing either. In fact, historically speaking, so far this century (25 years) Mexico has grown on average, from 2000 to 2019, at a rate of 1.8%. However, during the years of the COVID pandemic and the post-pandemic, that percentage has risen very slowly. Investment and consumption have stagnated dramatically and this is reflected in confidence indicators even though the peso-dollar exchange rate has remained stable.
The reality is that Mexico is a million light years away from Mr. Obrador’s campaign promises seven years ago: the average annual growth of 4 percent to 6 percent never came… and still seems very far away.
The truth is that both the Mexican economy and that of the rest of the Latin American countries are still very weak and fragile, since their possibilities of achieving the growth goals projected by the official “analysts” always end up being cut off due to internal and external factors such as the global economic slowdown, the uncertainty surrounding trade and international policies, the lack of confidence in the private sector and the fall in gross fixed investment… a cocktail for disaster.
Therefore, the effect that government investment programs may have, such as Plan Mexico, fiscal policy (which has not yet been consolidated) and gross fixed investment, which has been showing a downward trend due to the lack of legal certainty, will be very important.
This being the case, let’s hope that the 2026 FIFA Cup brings a hopeful economic impact and a good number of international tourists, as that will help us straighten the course a little.
Contact.- www.lapoliticamedarisa.mx
alessandriniyazmin@yahoo.com.mx
Twitter / X: @yalessandrini1
The post Low growth expectations worry appeared first on Veritas News.
