Maduro affirms that he has “thousands of Russian missiles” to defend himself against the United States if Trump opts for a land invasion

In an event televised by the public channel VTV and surrounded by soldiers, Maduro wanted to send this message to Donald Trump shortly after the American president declared that “does not rule out” land military action against Venezuela framed in the fight against drug trafficking.

In fact, last August, Trump decided to classify the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist entity, established that Maduro was its main responsible party, and increased the reward that the Secretary of State offered for any information leading to his capture, from fifteen million dollars to fifty.

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Since then, US pressure has only increased, with the bombing of various vessels in international waters and in Colombia’s territorial waters, which has also caused a disagreement with the president. Gustavo Petro.

All this growing tension caused Maduro to recently send a letter to the Russian ambassador to the UN, and current president of the Security Council, Vasili Nebenzia, requesting an urgent meeting of the Council to study and condemn a possible US attack.

Since then, the military presence in the Caribbean has grownboth in the seas and, above all, in the skies, with B1 bombers patrolling the area. The feeling is that, at any moment, things could get worse.

An important geopolitical movement

That said, Maduro’s appeal to Russia – both diplomatic and military – is not coincidental. Venezuela is a partner and geopolitical ally of the Kremlin as it is from China. Neither of the two great powers would want to see them lose their influence over a country so rich in oil and so willing to diplomatically support any of their causes, including the invasion of Ukraine. Surrounded by internal opposition and external threats, it is normal for Maduro to bring up Russia, so that Washington remembers that they are not facing just any enemy.

And it is that, Even without the support of Russia or China, military ground action in Venezuela seems very risky. Chavismo has remained in power for 26 years thanks, precisely, to the support of the military and the massive purchase of weapons. A ground invasion is impossible without an internal breach that the Trump Administration is undoubtedly seeking and that would have as its objective the exile or detention of Maduro and the calling of free elections for the first time in decades.

The US president himself acknowledged last week that he had given orders to the CIA to carry out covert maneuvers to decapitate the regime, which boasts of having eight million reservists ready to defend it. It is a figure that is somewhat difficult to believe if one takes into account that the population of Venezuela does not reach 29 million and that, in the last elections, supposedly, only 6.4 million citizens supported Maduro, a figure that, furthermore, is, to put it kindly, under discussion.

The “alt-right” does not see it clearly

During Thursday afternoon, there was speculation about the possibility that senior Venezuelan leaders had flown to Margarita Island, where several of the regime’s military command centers are located. There was also speculation that they had fled due to the imminent US attack. None of this has been clarified yet. Obviously, beyond the fight against drug trafficking in which these military actions are framed, there is a political intention against the regimes of Maduro and Petro, maximum representatives of leftist populism in South America.

At a time when The Trump Administration seems focused on Javier Milei achieving a great result in the legislative elections this Sunday in Argentina, the intervention in Venezuela could be part of a geopolitical reconstruction of the balances of power in South America. However, there are several voices within the MAGA movement that criticize this interventionist policy, as it moves away from the “America First” that twice brought Trump to the White House.

Activists such as Steve Bannon and Laura Loomer, leaders of the North American “alt-right”, have blamed the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, for wanting to lead the United States to disaster. Rubio, of Cuban origin and former senator from Florida, comes from the most conservative and least populist wing of the Republican Party and on previous occasions has been in favor of ending the dictatorial regimes in Cuba and Venezuela by force.

Confronting Maduro militarily, therefore, would mean confronting Putin, Xi and Bannon at the same time… and all this without guarantees that it would not become a new “Bay of pigs”. It’s a huge risk even for someone with Trump’s self-confidence. Now, if everyone insists on telling the emperor that he is not naked, it is always possible that sooner or later he will catch pneumonia.