The Argentine polls have spoken forcefully.
Against all odds, Javier Miley Not only did he win the legislative elections at the national level, but he also conquered the province of Buenos Aires, the electoral heart of the country and the historical bastion of Peronism.
The result reinforces his leadership, but forces him to build consensus to sustain the course of his government.
Argentina held legislative elections to renew half of the Chamber of Deputies (127 seats) and a third of the Senate (twenty-four).
The day was read as a plebiscite for the management of Javier Milei, and the polls gave him a firm political boost.
Libertad Avanza obtained almost 41% of the votes nationwide, surpassing Kirchnerist Peronism and its allies by nine points, which reached 31%.
The president of Argentina, Javier Milei, votes this Sunday, at the National Technological University, in Buenos Aires.
EFE
Milei won in fifteen provinces, consolidating his leadership in much of the Argentine map. In addition, it was imposed in the province of Buenos Aires, the most populated and symbolic district.
It was a clear victory in a context of apathy: only 68% of the voters turned out to vote, a historically low participation that reflects social disenchantment with politics.
The result consolidates Milei as the undisputed leader on the Argentine political scene. Citizens supported the ruling party even after a campaign marked by accusations of corruption and the loss of its main candidate in Buenos Aires, José Luis Espertforced to resign after being involved in complaints linked to drug trafficking.
“For Milei, the challenge begins now. The victory reinforces his political capital, but does not free him from the need to negotiate”
Support at the polls was also favored by the possibility of showing some fiscal discipline and decelerated inflation around 2% monthly, signs that reinforced the perception of a defined economic direction.
The other side is in the opposition. Peronism, which aspired to regain centrality after the presidential defeat of 2023, having achieved a victory in the midterm elections in the province of Buenos Aires on September 7, failed to articulate clear leadership.
Axel Kicillof It is emerging as a reference, but without achieving full consensus in a movement historically marked by internal tensions.
Accustomed to reinventing himself in crises, today he travels without a compass: With dispersed voices and without unified leadership, it is difficult for it to emerge as a power option.
For Milei, the challenge begins now. Victory reinforces his political capital, but does not free him from the need to negotiate.
Its political strength expanded its representation and the election leaves the ruling party with a bloc of ninety-three of its own deputies (compared to the thirty-seven it had before). Adding the allies, it would reach about 115 seats, fourteen of the 129 that mark the quorum necessary to approve laws in the lower house.
In the Senate, La Libertad Avanza would be left with twenty senators of its own (compared to the seven it had before), while Kirchnerism loses a good part of its bench, weakening its historical influence in the upper house.
Congress, in any case, will continue to be a ground for agreements, and politics, which he disqualified so much, appears as an indispensable condition to govern.
In this context, agreements with provincial governors become a key piece. Its ability to articulate federal consensus will be decisive in converting into concrete policies what until now was expressed as a program.
No government in Argentina can sustain itself for long without the cooperation of the governors, that control the territory and Congress through their legislators.
“The unknown now is whether Milei will be able to sustain this support until 2027 or if his victory will remain as another episode in the volatile Argentine electoral dynamics”
The message from the polls is clear: Milei renewed the citizen’s vote of confidence, exceeding even the most optimistic expectations and conquering the province of Buenos Aires.
But Argentine history teaches that victories in midterm elections do not always anticipate what will happen next. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner He suffered a tough defeat in the 2009 legislative elections against the opposition and, despite this, in 2011 he won with 54% of the votes in his re-election.
On the contrary, Mauricio Macri He achieved a resounding legislative victory in 2017, and two years later he lost the presidency.
The question now is whether Milei will be able to sustain this support until 2027 or if his victory will remain as another episode in the volatile Argentine electoral dynamics. The answer will depend of its ability to transform this temporary support into a platform of stable powerand that will only be possible through agreements with other forces and with the governors.
The next few months will be decisive. Dialogue with the provinces, parliamentary negotiation and the ability to manage dissent will determine whether Milei manages to project his leadership beyond this triumph or if, as so many times in Argentine history, The euphoria of the polls becomes just a passing memory and the country turns, once again, in another direction.
*** Juan Ignacio Di Meglio is Senior Director of Public Affairs at LLYC Argentina.
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