The recent imposition of United States tariffs on Canadian products reignited trade tensions in North America and raised alarms about the stability of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC).
Given this, the internationalist from the University of Guadalajara (UdeG), Miguel Sigalaconsidered that the relevance of this episode between the US and Canada is not an isolated event, but part of the political and economic style that has characterized Trump since the beginning of his administration, and that tests the solidity of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC).
“President Trump has an aggressive tone to negotiate, a revisionist, reformist and transformative tone of the United States’ relations with the world, especially with its main trading partners. This is one more chapter of the different impositions of tariffs and threats that since January he has launched against countries with which it maintains close relations, including Canada,” commented Sigala.
The specialist highlighted that, Although the volume of trade is relevant, the geographical proximity and economic and cultural integration make the link between Canada, Mexico and the United States much more complex. In that sense, Washington’s decision not only affects numbers, but also trust between the countries that share the North American bloc.
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“For months it has begun to be said openly that Canada can no longer entrust its economy or its commercial destiny to an alliance with the United States. Canada and Mexico became economic powers thanks to their access to the US market, but today that security is at one of its lowest points in contemporary history,” the academic said.
Sigala warned that this situation could mark a profound change in Canadian strategy, which is beginning to look inward in search of greater self-sufficiency. “We are seeing a return to economic nationalism, a kind of reversal of globalization. It is one of the most relevant phenomena of this moment,” he stated.
Although, he said, It is still early to measure the concrete economic impacts that this could bring to Canada, the internationalist considered that it is one more point that reinforces the fact that Canada no longer fully trusts the United States. as its main commercial ally, and which is reflected in the recent statements of the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who warned that the economic relationship with the United States “is a vulnerability for Canada.”
“Canada cannot be subject to changes in mood or strategy from the White House. Its national economy cannot depend on unilateral decisions by the United States,” he added in this regard.
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Miguel Sigala, similarly, considered that this measure responds more to the political strategy of the American president than to a real economic need. “Trump wants to maintain the greatest room for maneuver and power possible against Canada and Mexico in the future negotiation of the T-MEC”considered.
In this scenario, Cooperation between Mexico and Canada could be a logical response, given that both countries share interests vis-à-vis Washington, although, he said, this alliance could also be seen as a threat by the United States.
“Trump knows that it is easier to negotiate individually with Mexico or Canada than with both at the same time. Divide and conquer, as the political maxim says. That is why he tries to prevent this bilateral collaboration from being consolidated,” Sigala explained.
He added, Uncertainty about the future of the T-MEC remains, therefore, while Canada and Mexico seek to maintain the trilateral format, in Washington some sectors are pushing for bilateral agreements that give the United States greater control over its partners. “For now, neither Canada nor Mexico want two separate treaties. The trilateral format gives them negotiating power and allows them to influence more US decisions,” concluded the specialist.
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