The EU accepts as a lesser evil that Putin negotiates for Ukraine in Budapest and presses for Zelensky to be present

They came to the conclusion, perhaps somewhat hastily, that Donald Trump I had understood that Vladimir Putin was not interested in stopping the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine, which would not accept anything that did not imply the sudden fall of Volodímir Zelenski and his immediate replacement by a like-minded leader in Kyiv who would not give up a single millimeter of the occupied Ukrainian territories.

European leaders also perceived a change in the tone used by the White House to comment on progress on the ground.

The turning point—seemingly definitive—came at the end of September. It was then that Trump wrote in Truth Social that Ukraine could recover, why not, all the regions lost to the Russians since the illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014.

“After fully knowing and understanding the military and economic situation between Ukraine and Russia, and after seeing the economic problems this is causing Russia, I believe that Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and RECOVER all of Ukraine in its original form,” he stressed. “With time, patience and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original borders from where this war began are a good option.”

His 180-degree turn, preceded by a meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, surprised everyone and everyone because the White House occupant seemed to have irreversibly adopted the Alaska framework. A negotiation based on the exchange of territories. Or, rather, on the basis of the transfer of territories to Russia by Ukraine.

Zelensky presented himself as the last obstacle to materializing this plan, and he had everything to lose. Only the support of the seven European leaders who accompanied him in mid-August on his second visit to the White House improved his situation.

The intense diplomatic pressure from continental leaders, with the secretary general of NATO, Mark Ruttein the lead, linked to the failure of the talks in Alaska, where Putin insisted on reproducing his now usual historiographic explanations to demonstrate that Ukraine is part of Russia, as advanced by the Financial Timesmanaged to reverse the dynamic.

After that episode, Trump allowed Ukrainian forces to attack Russian soil with their weapons, something that Joe Biden never authorized, and for the first time explored the possibility of selling Tomahawk cruise missiles to Kyiv to hit refineries and other strategic targets deep in Russia. His patience with Putin seemed to have run out.

“Russia has been fighting aimlessly for three and a half years, in a war that should have taken a Real Military Power less than a week to win,” Trump himself had written (sic) in the aforementioned Truth Social publication.

Putin buys time

The White House pendulum, however, swung again last week toward Moscow. One day before Zelensky’s third visit to the White House, Putin decided to phone Trump to thwart the Tomahawk shipment and let him know that, now yeswas willing to negotiate. He got his way.

The Russian president met with his American counterpart in Budapest in two weeks – to recover “the spirit of Anchorage”, in the words of the Russian diplomat Sergei Ryabkov— and left Ukraine without long-awaited long-range missiles.

Last Friday, Trump called for freezing the conflict along the front line and claimed to have “never” discussed with Zelensky the proposal to hand over Donbas. “I think 78 percent of the territory is already taken by Russia. Leave it as it is for now, and later you can negotiate something,” he said aboard Air Force One.

Asked about the proposal of the tenant of the White House to stop hostilities on the front, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskovpointed out this Monday that “Russia’s negotiating position” on this issue “has not changed.” In other words, Moscow neither contemplated it then nor contemplates it now.

Road to Budapest

Last Friday, Zelensky shared with European leaders the content of his tense conversation with Trump. Its allies, confident that they have left the worst possible scenario behind, are now rescuing the initial idea of ​​shoring up Ukraine’s defenses alone, without having direct support from the United States.

“Europe’s solidarity with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression is more important today than ever,” he wrote on Saturday. Donald Tusk on the social network

“Zelensky has the full support of Germany and European friends on the path to peace,” reacted the German chancellor. Friedrich Merzwhich advanced that European leaders had coordinated after Zelensky’s visit to Washington to “closely monitor the next steps.”

Everything suggests that the next steps to which Merz referred will be taken in Budapest.

Last Friday, the Commission spokesperson, Anitta Hipperleft the door open for the Hungarian capital to host the summit after clarifying that the Russian president was only subject to an asset freeze by the European Union. No travel bans to its territory.

However, as the Ukrainian analyst explains Anton Shekhovtsovthe sanctions of the Twenty-Seven do not allow Putin to set foot on community soil, and the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbányou cannot change that reality by yourself.

“These two factors make Putin’s trip to Budapest dependent on the will of the EU, so it is the EU that must decide whether or not to allow the meeting to take place,” says Shekhovtsov.

The mere possibility of a member country of the community club hosting the negotiations raises suspicions in the European foreign ministries, especially in the Baltic countries, which question Putin’s willingness to reach some type of compromise.

This is the case of the Foreign Minister of Lithuania, Kęstutis Budryswho acknowledged this Monday that he could not imagine Putin “crossing our airspace.”

“There is no place for war criminals in Europe,” declared the head of Lithuanian diplomacy from Luxembourg. “Putin’s only place in Europe is in The Hague, before the court, not in any of our capitals.”

Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalla He acknowledged that it is a bitter pill to swallow, but he did not show as many qualms as Budrys. “The United States has a lot of force to pressure Russia to come to the negotiating table; if they use that force, then, of course, that is a positive thing,” acknowledged the EU high representative.

Kallas, however, pressures the parties to reserve a seat for Zelensky in Budapest.

“My wish would have been that it was President Zelensky who met with Putin, because in reality they are the ones who must agree on this,” said the head of European diplomacy upon her arrival in Luxembourg. “We are also working to convince our allies around the world that nothing can come out of these meetings if Ukraine or Europe are not part of them,” he stressed upon leaving the meeting with the EU foreign ministers.

Zelensky says he is willing to appear in Budapest even though he considers that the capital of Hungary is not “the best place for this meeting” given the ideological affinity that unites Orbán and Putin.

The Ukrainian president wants to be present on the condition that the format consists of either a trilateral meeting or “a shuttle diplomacy, in which President Trump meets with Putin and then with me.”

Peskov clarified this Monday that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrovand his American counterpart, Marco Rubiothey have not yet specified the details of the meeting. Zelensky’s participation therefore remains up in the air.