The far-right Geert Wilders, favorite to win today’s elections in the Netherlands but vetoed by his rivals

Netherlands go to the polls this Wednesday by third time in less than five years con the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), of Geert Wilders, as favorite in the polls despite the fact that it is unlikely that he will achieve enough support to lead the next Executive for the vetoes of his rivals.

The elections, called after the collapse of the government coalition led by Dick Schoof in the face of migratory pressures exerted by the
extreme right, are now taking place in a climate of dissatisfaction, mistrust and with an increasingly fractured and polarized political scene marked by the collapse of the liberals.

Despite the fact that Wilders took a step forward in the summer and ended his alliance when he considered that his government partners were not making the decisions
relevant, the surveys now give 17% of support for the PVV, which could translate into about 29 seats – a decrease
37 current-.

The country, accustomed to negotiations and pacts to achieve parliamentary arrangements that make legislatures viable, is now heading towards a
contest that seems to predict results similar to those of the previous elections.

Despite being the leader of the majority party, Wilders was already vetoed after the previous elections to assume the position of prime minister, a scenario that could be repeated in an election to which They present 27 parties that aspire to the 150 seats in Parliament, currently distributed among 15 formations.

The electorate arrives at the meeting divided and volatile after a chain of unstable governments: Rutte’s last two cabinets fell in January 2021, over a parental allowance scandal, and in July 2023, over disagreements over asylum policy.

The coalition that succeeded him – formed after the November 2023 elections and headed by the independent Dick Schoof since July 2024 – collapsed in the summer over the immigration issue, which precipitated an electoral advance.

According to surveys, nno party will obtain an absolute majority to govern alone, as is traditional in Dutch coalition politics.

The PVV, the radical right of Wilders, remains the leading force in the polls, with between 29 and 31 seats.

They follow him block of environmentalists and social democrats GL-PvdA, led by Frans Timmermans; and the Christian Democrat CDA, of Henri Bontenbal, both in a strip of 22 to 27 seats.

These figures reflect the weighted averages of the surveys published by Bearing guide.

The progressive liberal D66, the conservative VVD and the right-wing national-conservative JA21 are in a second group, with estimates of 12 to 17 seats. The rest of the parties would not exceed five seats each.

He NSC, The centrist party that left Schoof’s government in August after internal clashes over the response to the Israeli offensive in Gaza, now appears in some polls with one or no seats, despite now having 21 deputies.

If these forecasts are confirmed, and given the cross veto between major parties -several parties refuse to govern with Wilders, and the VVD has ruled out sharing a cabinet with a clearly left-wing coalition- difficult negotiations are anticipated to form a coalition that, predictably, will need four or five parties.